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May 28, 2008

Sunnis Suspend talks with the Government

The Iraqi Accordance Front, known as Tawafuq, was supposed to return to the government about three weeks ago. They pulled their Sunni ministers from the Shiite-led government in August in protest.

Now after weeks of haggling about what Sunni ministers will go where they've pulled their list and suspended their participation threatening to extend the nearly year-long boycott to the government.

The Sunni bloc rallied around Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki following his operation in Basra that targeted the Shiite Mahdi Army and Iranian-linked groups. To most Sunnis Maliki was finally a Prime Minister. not a Shiite leader. The Sunnis said they would return to the government and videos of Tariq al Hashemi, the Sunni vice-president, and Maliki were broadcast with the two leaders smiling and chatting. The pair are known to dislike each other.

Now the Accordance Front is upset by the small number and what they describe as low-level ministries being offered to them by the government.So once again the talks have stopped and the proposed lists from the Accordance Front was pulled.

Dhafir al Ani, a parliament member from the Sunni bloc said they were standing their ground. The government gives in easily to the Shiite alliance and gives nothing to Tawafuq, al Ani said in a statement.

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The political cartoons are very good, however important pending elections tend to cause political paralysis as one side may assume it's political position will be improved as a result of the election. That's likely the case with the Accordance Front not wanting to join the government yet, and possibly also the Sadrists whose peaceful demonstrations under the law were reported around the world. No doubt the Sadrists noticed that with positive news comes real political power, not the fake type of power seized by arms and intimidation.

Therefore the best thing the government can do now is to pass the law for the provincial elections and not depend on passing any major laws, like the oil law until after those elections are over. At the same time as the provincial elections the provision for a referendum on the Status of Force agreement should be voted on, as the Sadrists and many others are demanding. It must be shown to the Sadrists that they can gain much more working under the law than working outside the law as so many have been doing.

To accommodate that referendum, the UN resolution will probably have to be extended until June 30, 2009, but that's not nearly the big problem Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been making out. The Iraqi army is far from being able to defend itself from even minor aggression from it's neighbors and will probably require US military assistance for at least another year. Talk about sovereignty all you want, I hope most Iraqi's appreciate the Iraqi army is much improved and more confident but not yet where it needs to be.

I would also suggest another national referendum at the time of the provincial elections, and that is to decide whether the Kurdish oil fields should be nationalized and put under the control of the Iraqi government. It would also specify that nationalization means any oil or gas contracts not signed by the government of Iraq shall be declared of no legal force (null and void). Debate sovereignty all you want, but there is nothing better than a national referendum to establish whether the people of Iraq want to claim their sovereignty over all Iraqi oil and gas fields.

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