What's the scenario?

I've been a terrible blogger lately. I spent the last week covering the showdown in Beirut, and didn't have time to post at the end of those very long days. My apologies.

This was a particularly savage round of Lebanon's neverending civil strife, which made it all the more jarring to see how quickly the Lebanese absorbed news reports of massacres and then, the minute the immediate crisis was over, went right back to shopping at fancy malls and lounging at cafes. Sadly, things probably will get much, much worse before they get better. Check out this International Crisis Group report on the recent political violence.

This morning I arrived in the Egyptian Red Sea resort town of Sharm el Sheikh for the World Economic Forum on the Middle East, a sort of mini-Davos summit for the Arab world. My flight touched down at dawn and Egyptian workers at the main airport roundabout were still hard at work pulling down international flags and replacing them with an impressive column of U.S. flags to welcome President Bush. (There was something a little bizarre about watching Arabic-speaking laborers struggle to bring down the Canadian flag in order to unfurl Old Glory.)

In line to check into the hotel, I met a tall, blond European businessman who is a self-described "scenario specialist." He said he helped to design the three "scenarios" that WEF delegates will be asked to analyze and discuss as they try to envision the planet in 2025; the conference theme is Learning From the Future. Briefly, the scenarios are the Hyperlinked World, the Sustainable World and the Multipolar World. For more details, click here.

I'd read about the scenarios on the plane ride, thanks to a write-up in EgyptAir's in-flight magazine, Horus. When I first saw that delegates would be discussing scenarios for the Middle East in 2025, I was thinking more along the lines of "Islamist rule in Egypt" or "A Partitioned Iraq" or "Still no Palestinian state" or "the U.S.-led war in Iran." Sustainability? Hyperlinking? It all struck me as a little too rosy for what's really happening on the ground.

Evidently, my new European scenario specialist acquaintance gets that kind of skepticism a lot, because he addressed it before I'd said anything more than, "Oh, yeah, the scenarios. Read about them on the plane."

"We don't do horrible scenarios and such," he said. "We go for something positive, something you can work toward, something you can discuss."

So, no bombing or coup scenarios?

"No, if we did that kind of thing, no one would come," he said with a laugh. "You've got to give them something aspirational."

Comments

[Chris Baker]

Clearly the Middle East wants freedom of expression, guaranteed individual rights and unbounded opportunity and that's exactly what they will get. The world is going to demand it. However the way Israel is acting, I would not assume it will be around in 2025 - it's good they celebrate those anniversaries while they can.

[hollister uk]

I read this article, I really wish I could have spoken with the author directly.

[Abercrombie fitch outlet]

As you stated, it's clear that many people were misleading some people, and from the very beginning.

[hollister uk]

Well said, such a person should be a good sentence, or the future will be more rampant.

[ed hardy uk]

Well said, such a person should be a good sentence, or the future will be more rampant.

[Abercrombie outlet]

Iraqi government leaders, deserve my tax dollars, about as much as the US leaders, who gave it to them.The citizens of America don't need their money to be spent here ? Replace those in charge, here in the US,who made the decision to give our tax dollars to anyone but our Bankers,we all know how much they need our tax dollars, don't we.SAD,SAD USA facts Again.Get your passport in order.

[バーバリーマフラー]

バーバリーマフラー
無政府状態が長く続き、国内経済が破たん状態にあるソマリアでは、
バーバリーハンドバッグ
海賊が数少ない外貨獲得手段にもなっている。同国北部の港湾都市ボサソでは、海賊に「転身」した元漁師が、バーバリー アウトレット
身代金でにわか成金のような生活を送っているという。
バーバリーマフラー特に、ここ数年は若者たちが海賊稼業にあこがれるようになり、海賊組織の規模も一挙に拡大した。
バーバリー財布組織は収入の一部を「投資」に充て、武器や全地球測位システム（ＧＰＳ）を購入。バーバリー アウトレットもめ事を避けるため、身代金を公平に分ける制度も整え、船の乗っ取りや陸上での見張りといった仕事に応じ、分け前が決まっているとされる。

[バーバリーマフラー]

バーバリーマフラー
北海道由仁町内の診療所で国が注射器の使い回しを放置したためＣ型肝炎ウイルス感染が多発したとして、バーバリーハンドバッグ
同町の住民らが来年１月にも、国に１人３００万円の慰謝料を求めて札幌地裁に提訴する。提訴予定者は既に１００人を超えており、７日に弁護団が結成された。弁護団によると、バーバリー アウトレットＣ型肝炎感染者の割合が高い地域は国内に同町を含め約５０カ所あるとされ、こうした「地域偏在」を根拠に訴訟を起こすのは全国初という。

　
バーバリーマフラー訴えるのは、町内にあった２カ所の診療所で治療を受けたことがある患者や遺族。バーバリー財布多くは５０～８０年代ごろに「ホット注射」と呼ばれる解熱剤の投与を受けていた。原告側は「どちらの診療所も注射器を水洗いしただけで使い回していた」と指摘。
バーバリー アウトレット世界保健機関（ＷＨＯ）は５３年に注射器を煮沸消毒するよう警告を出したが、国はその後も適切な指導を怠ったと主張している。

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