Most of the world's eyes are on election results in the United States but Taiwan is fretting about a different election . . . in Nicaragua.
Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista revolutionary leader, looks like he'll be taking the reins of Nicaragua again, reliving his 1979-1990 rule. Ortega has made no secret of his indication to drop diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and renew relations with China.
It would be a major blow to Taiwan, which has only 24 diplomatic allies in the world.
Nicaragua is in the heart of Central America, the only region that supports Taiwan in a bloc. If Nicaragua topples, the other countries of Central America may not stay in Taiwan's camp much longer, especially if China starts waving around fistfuls of cash.
Taiwan issued a carefully worded statement today, quoting the foreign minister as saying, "We hope the two countries can maintain friendly ties."
I wouldn't count on it. Ortega's government recognized China in 1985, and when Violeta Chamorro won office in 1990, ending Sandinista rule, she switched to Taiwan and sent her eldest son, Pedro Joaquin Chamorro, there as ambassador.
The last time I was in Managua was in the summer of 2004. I was astounded by all the Taiwanese money that had poured into the country. Taiwan built a vast presidential palace in the former Revolutionary Plaza in Managua, and helped finance a number of other projects. It even reportedly paid for 115 Nicaraguan troops to deploy to Iraq in 2003.
Ortega has ideological reasons, though, for wanting to ally with China, and I'm sure China will reward him handsomely.
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