A testosterone rampage in China?

China’s “gender gap” is turning into one of those stock phrases to insinuate that the social situation in the countryside is volatile. You might want to take that belief with a grain of salt, though.

The issue has popped up again in recent days. The state news agency Xinhua reported last week that there are 119 boys born for every 100 girls, adding that in the countryside the ratio rises to 122 boys for every 100 girls.

The story cites Zhang Weiqing, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, as saying that many parents are still illegally using ultrasound checks to ensure that their offspring will be a boy.

China now has 18 million more men of marriage age than women, and this abundance of testosterone-laden single males is expected to hit 30 million by the 2020.

The single males are commonly known as “bare branches” because they are unlikely to bear fruit, leaving their family lineage barren.

So will those unencumbered males end up being rowdy frat boys? Or will they be more like monks in a monastery?

Some researchers say the mass of restless male energy is a ticking time bomb, threatening China’s domestic stability and even international security. They say excess men would increase chances of social aggression, authoritarian rule and even war. Women will become a commodity. Prostitution could surge.

This thesis emerged with the 2005 book Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population by Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer.

Now comes news that a Columbia University researcher, Lena Edlund, says gender imbalance in China leads to greater crime. According to this news report, she says that every one percent increase in gender imbalance leads to a six percent increase in violent and property crime. She studied the period from 1988 to 2004.

I haven’t read her report, and am relying just on the news report, but on the face of it I don’t buy it. The period she studied saw an explosion of private property in China. Of all the variables, how could she determine that a rise in crime is attributable to excess males?

There are many possible outcomes from a gender gap other than social instability. Check out this fellow China blogger’s essay to read a long examination of the matter. He notes that China has likely had an excess male population a lot longer than many theorists suggest. Yet the serious problems haven’t yet manifested. 

So maybe preparations for the hormonal rampage in China are premature.

Comments

[nanheyangrouchuan]

In China it has been mentioned that homosexuality is actually more acceptable to men as an alternative to being with a woman than in western countries, so the overall problem MAY have a relief valve. As long as men can get laid, they are less aggressive. But rump ranging many only temporarily satisfy natural urges (others being lifelong companionship, family, etc).

But what is not mentioned in this report is the constant and seemingly increasing verbal and sometimes physical harassment that local girls experience when with a foreign guy (and the guy is not always immune either).

These "bare branches" also have more than just sexual frustration as a reason to be angry, they are typically at the very bottom of earnings potential and looks. Being a poor, ugly bumpkin doesn't lead to alot of romantic encounters (right pfeffer? ;-)).

So the spoils among adult women go to Chinese men with good earning potential or at least good looks and good physique and pretty much any foreigner. And the adoption of so many baby girls as a form of rescue serves to sweep up many others.

[A B]

There is a safety valve in China, where customs is men have to pay for their brides.

So over the longer term, the price of brides will sharply rise - especially for desirable ones - and it would hopefully end the export of unwanted girls.

A second release is with the rising participation of women in the economy, they have more opportunities, and with 'one child' policies limiting their time spent having children, they are far more free to roam, both in terms of careers and relationships. Raising children has always been less strongly tied to the natural parents in Chinese culture than in the West, and more often than not, migrant workers have children raised by relations 'back home'.

With the weakening of social ties of marriage, there is far more 'churning', read, relationships, between people who are nominally married to someone but yet may work elsewhere, live elsewhere, etc. and not even be bound by the ties of being parents.

Likewise, the divorce rate of couples from China abroad have been astonishingly high as both men and women find more opportunities and are less satisfied with their spouse from 'back home'.

This, plus the widespread availability of sex for pay, and the de facto acceptance and tolerance of this by virtually all of society, means that there is a pretty good safety valve for the sexual desires of the excess males. More than likely, as China becomes wealthier, brides will be imported (as they are to Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan) from other places.

Look at Hong Kong and Taiwan and how many men have set up additional wives, mistresses, or go for sex etc. in the mainland. It is almost accepted as a normal part of life and presumed by the spouses back 'home'.

The real scary place is India, where Hindu customs make the bride's family pay to marry off their daughters.

[nanheyangrouchuan]

"There is a safety valve in China, where customs is men have to pay for their brides.
So over the longer term, the price of brides will sharply rise - especially for desirable ones - and it would hopefully end the export of unwanted girls."

Most of the men who are "at risk" of anti-social behavior can't afford brides.

[White guy with Chinese girlfriend/wife]

I'd hate to be the white guy with a Chinese girlfriend/wife when there're 30 million testosterone-laden single Chinese males ready to pounce on him. Good luck!

[rio]

has anyone looked at this gender imbalance in terms of geography?
The disparity is in no ways even throughout China. For example in a booming southern city like shenzhen you will find it hard be believe that there is a shortage of Chinese women. In general, urban areas in southern and coastal China attrack much female workers with manufacturing and service jobs that generally prefer using women. It's in the backwards, mid/northern villages and country side that the disparity is greatest, and where this 30 million projected bachelors likely preside. And like Nanyen said, they are made up of underachieving, undereducated, underpaid, ugly guys that can't afford to move out of their region, or the money to buy a bride/host a wedding.
An example would be the Chinese coal mine fodder you keep hearing on the news about.
Any social problems/upheavals will likely be to regionally contained in inner central China.

[Tracy]

The cause of the gender gap in China is the traditional view of Chinese towards the two genders. The status of men and women had been unequal for thousands of years. The traditional view was based on the traditional Chinese culture, which was appropriate for the ancient China. However, along with the rapid development in China, people’s view is changing. But it is still a long process to change all. It is true that the gender imbalance is geographical. This phenomenon exists the most in rural areas in china as many people there still living in the poverty and what they believe is that only boys can bring them new, beautiful life. But in most of the areas in china, especially those developed cities, this phenomenon no longer exists.
The mass of restless male energy might be one of the reasons of the instability of the society, but definitely it’s not the only one. The government has done something to solve the problem of the gender gap, but this problem might not be solved only by the government policies.

[ashley]

It is true that the “gender gap” in China maintains such a long time in the history, may be thousands of years, as an old tradition deeply inside all Chinese people’s hearts. Ancient Chinese people attach great importance to continuing lineage, and in their mind that it is the males who can inherit the blood and when the girls got married they would not be the family members of their parents’ clan house but their husbands’. Moreover, this thought was pointed to be ridiculous only about 60 years. In this case, the traditional notion is so hard to be changed completely in a short term, so I can not agree more that someone notes that this situation will exist in a longer period than many theorists suggest.

However, the government had made several charters to reduce the imbalance of gender. The most basic method is that ultrasound check whether the offspring will be a boy or girl is illegal. Though this did not work perfectly lower the gender gap, it has prevented a large number of parents using ultrasound check.

Personally, I think the most efficient way to reduce the abundance of males is educate the citizens, especially the rural civilians, to change the ridiculer thought that boys are better than girls and are the real family members. This is because the students are the young generations that will take charge of the future society and take the responsibility to deal with the social problems, including the gender gap. In addition, the urban area is more accessible to the world, so it is easier to absorb the modern notions and the truth is that most of the Chinese urban citizens have abandoned the discrimination.

I doubt that the abundance of testosterone-laden single males will hit 30 million by the 2020. Firstly, it is unknown that what data the forecast depend on and if it is reliable. Secondly, the new parents would be higher educated people than the ones in the past; therefore, the percentage of the ones who dropped the old traditional thought will be increasing and the pace of imbalanced gender will reducing.

Admittedly, the mass of restless male energy from the bare branches is a ticking time bomb. The excess men would increase chances of social aggression, but not quite serious. The government has paid so many attentions on the social stability, and a number of males means the more police and soldiers who to protect the country and social security. It is exaggerated to claim that women will become a commodity or prostitution could surge, while the problems caused by single males have not be so manifested.

Just like the writer, I haven’t read the report from Lena Edlund, and I agreed what the writer mentioned that the period she studied has turned to be the old history. She has not considered the variables of the development of the society and the education system, the economic situation and many other factors that may affect the crime.

Another condition which might has some influence on increasing the “bare branches” in China is that the Asian wife might be more acceptable to western families than Asian husbands. So the Chinese women might have more choices and on the other hand the Chinese men might own more enemy. However, I do not think the foreign males will get more aggressions by owning a Chinese girlfriend or wife than the Chinese man.

So there is not enough firm evidence to say the testosterone rampage in China is a social problem and the gender imbalance will be a serious cause of the crime increase.

[Jenny]

I think I could not agree with this article.It has been thousands of years that couples want to have boys in China,and I believe that gender gap has been existing for a long time. However, little crimes happened due to this.It's not as serious as what the blogger said.

I want to ask blogger that how could you think it as a serious social problem without any evidence? It's normal for males to be more than females.Of course they can't be the exactly the same.And I think less females will cause the female more precious other than being commodity!Such gender gap may also cause the society to care more about the women. I believe that gender gap does no harm to the society. Maybe some men couldn't find a wife,but they will not commit crimes just because of this. As it is all known that the population of China is the largest in the world and we need to stop it from increasing. Gender gap just can help us to decrease the population as not every man could find a wife and have a baby.So it is really ridiculous to say that gender gap is threatening China's domestic stability.

[Jenny]

I think I could not agree with this article.It has been thousands of years that couples want to have boys in China,and I believe that gender gap has been existing for a long time. However, little crimes happened due to this.It's not as serious as what the blogger said.

I want to ask blogger that how could you think it as a serious social problem without any evidence? It's normal for males to be more than females.Of course they can't be the exactly the same.And I think less females will cause the female more precious other than being commodity!Such gender gap may also cause the society to care more about the women. I believe that gender gap does no harm to the society. Maybe some men couldn't find a wife,but they will not commit crimes just because of this. As it is all known that the population of China is the largest in the world and we need to stop it from increasing. Gender gap just can help us to decrease the population as not every man could find a wife and have a baby.So it is really ridiculous to say that gender gap is threatening China's domestic stability.

Although China imposed strict population control in 1970s to limit growth of its huge population, one side effect has been a jump in gender selection. Traditional preference for a son mean some women, especially in rural areas, abort their babies if a early term of sonogram shows it is a girl although this is illegal. Therefore, discrimination against famale sex remains the primary cause of China's growing gender imbalance (from the State Population and Family Planning Commission). It has become a big headache in society. Those men, especially with low income and little education would find it difficult to get married. Beacause of this , the crime rate are increasing and the number of unemployment are rising as well. Some of them are just like vermins, threatening the stabililty of the society. The government should take actions to prevent this tendency as soon as possible. According to China Daily, one way to solve the problem is to creat a security system so rural couples will no longer feel they need a son to rely on when they are old. Furthermore, I think rural people should accept more education so that they will give up such traditional concept. Laws and regulations must be established to crack down on such people who abort babies beacause of discrimination against famale sex. Preperations should be done immediately.

[Bessie]

Actually, it is true that China has an excess male population nowadays. There are 119 boys born for every 100 girls, in additional, the ratio rises to over 130 boys for every 100 girls in may provinces, such as Hainan and Guangdong. However, the world average data is 102:100. It shows that gender imbalance becomes a serious problem in social life.

The reasons why quantities of couples prefer to have sons may conclude several aspects.
The main reason is the traditional thoughts. Boys are better than girls, this is a deep-rooted slant in Chinese people’s mind during the five -thousand –year history. Boys had power, they were able to do more physical work, and they could bear offspring to continue their family lineages. Girls could do nothing, but stayed at home. And after they married, they would not be their children no more, from that on, girls were belong to their husbands’ families.
Another important reason is that, many parents think that boys can support them when they get old, and have no ability to live alone. Boys can be a guarantee of their life.

The gender imbalance might cause a series of social problems. For instance, the rate of divorce will increase, the stability if family will be minatory, more males will be bare branches, females will face more pressure of employment. In fact, I don’t agree with that ”excess men would increase chances of social aggression, authoritarian rule and even war. Women will become a commodity. Prostitution could surge” ( Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer.) There is no strong evidence to support this view. Someone pointed out excess men would also cause a rise of homosexuality. Homosexual is not an abnormal social phenomenon. It has existed since the beginning of human-beings history. It is very common, homosexuals are the same as everybody else is . They are no different. The increasing population of men is not responsibility for the population of homosexuality.

Government has already noticed the big problem. And they are trying to find an efficient way to ameliorate this issue. For example, they may make laws to force couples. Using ultrasound to check the sex will be illegal. At the same time, with the development of education, more and more people are able to change the mind. Boys and girls are equal obviously.

We have reasons to believe that the imbalance will be controlled, and the circumstance will be meliorative in few years

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