Stirred up over the Spratly Islands

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian made a surprise visit this weekend to one of the disputed Spratly Islands in key shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

This was a stick-in-your-eye move by Chen, whose party is heading into elections next month. Chen likes to rile up his neighbors, and he picked the right place.

The Spratlys, you may remember, are disputed by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia. The barren reefs and rocky outcrops are astride the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Surrounding seas may hold rich oil and gas deposits.

Vietnam this morning cried foul. It already had protested twice to Taiwan in the past month. The Philippines labeled the trip reckless.

So what of China? Zippo. Nada. No official response. This might seem odd. China, after all, is hypersensitive to any efforts by Taiwan to exercise sovereignty. But the Chinese media are practically barren of news on this topic.

Here’s what the smart money says: China looks kindly on the trip. After all, Chen’s visit may help establish the “Chineseness” of the islands before the other claimants. One blog notes that some Chinese applauded Chen for “finally doing something right.” Even if China and Taiwan have a joint claim, it helps fend off the Vietnamese, the thinking goes.

The real issue here is China and Vietnam. Taiwan may be peripheral.

Among the claimants to the 100 or islands, Taiwan may have the weakest right. It claims only the biggest island, Taiping, where Chen landed in a military C-130 Saturday for a few hours to inaugurate the runway and salute troops. Taiping Island is 1,000 miles south of Taiwan.

But China and Vietnam have actually drawn guns over the islands. And tensions between the two countries simmer anew.

In 1988, China and Vietnam fought a brief naval battle near the Spratlys' Johnson Reef, killing more than 70 Vietnamese sailors.

Large student-led anti-Chinese protests erupted in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in December following Chinese military exercises in the South China Sea. And now some shooting is occurring between fishing boats. Check this report of clashes Jan. 7.

China wants no trouble before the Summer Olympic Games. But its troubles with Vietnam are worth keeping an eye on. Vietnam may see the Games as a chance to make some sort of further territorial claim on the islands. Taiwan, for that matter, may do the same.

Comments

[Pffefer]

Tim I don't agree with your prediction that Vietnam will be taking advantage of the Games by making moves to substentiate their territorial claims. If they do, China will most likely respond.

You are right though to say China does not worry too much about Taiwan making such claims. After all China considers Taiwan part of themselves. Interestingly, the Filipino government complained to Beijing, not Taipei over Chen's incursion. I bet Beijing is laughing right now.

[Rick Friedl]

This whole episode is a fascinating but frightening one. It may not be resolvable by other than military actions, unfortunately. China seems to be the likely winner of the contest, although I do not know if their historical claim to the islands is the strongest one.