North Korea's bluster

To listen to the huffing and puffing coming out of North Korea lately, one would think a major crisis is in the offing again.

The country pledged over the weekend to mobilize all of its war potential to "mercilessly" fight any U.S. military attack, and it is carrying out on a recent threat to reassemble its Yongbyon nuclear facility, where it gets reprocessed nuclear fuel for its bombs.

But less may be there than meets the eye. All this could be a sign that this year’s harvest is particularly bad. Or it could just be typical bargaining by North Korea to rehash old issues that were already settled in earlier negotiations. Bluster and threat are the limited tools in North Korea’s negotiating toolbox.

Here are some interesting snippets from an intelligence report I get, written largely by retired U.S. intel people.

… the North’s provocative actions might be a reaction to worsening economic conditions, primarily food and energy shortages, for which it might now require foreign aid beyond that already agreed.

The effect of the North’s actions is to open a new round of talks, regardless of whether it rebuilds the reactor or tests weapons and missiles. In short, the price of North Korean cooperation has risen. That almost always means the North’s economic managers underestimated the country’s problems or unforeseen complications have arisen.

On another day, the report suggested that North Korea sees an opening to squeeze more out of the other nations in the six-party talks, which include the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S.

The settled analytical lore is that the North’s experience in dealing with the US, South Korea and Japan leads its leaders to judge they obtain more concessions from belligerence and bluster than from cooperation and from forcing the US and its allies to negotiate over the same terms over and over. While they experiment with cooperation from time to time, they always fall back on the tactics that have always produced the most benefits over the past 55 years. The Six Party Talks are reinforcing the settled lore.

The report noted that the two steps forward, one step backward process probably just took a step backward.

If the US chooses to stay engaged, Ambassador (Christopher) Hill or someone else must now re-negotiate for the dismantlement conditions that the US worked five years to achieve. That would be the significance of increased activity at Yongbyon, if confirmed. In short, the price of North Korean cooperation went up again.

Comments

[PaZhuLian]

Despite being propagated by popular culture, threesome actually never lived up to people’s fantasies, let alone for a six-some where colliding egos jousting for awkward compromising positions. It’s actually pretty extraordinary that it has lasted this long, as this kinky party seems to be unraveling, with one side pouting for more attention from another side, whom is unable to be more assertive because it’s on borrowed time.

However, bickering aside, I wouldn’t worry too much about Pyongyang’s huffing and puffing resulting in a downward spiral of the delicate situation. To me, it’s rather a natural manifestation of the factors such as the ones below, than a deliberate act of positioning for re-negotiation.

1. The departing Bush Administration’s refusal to take NK off the naughty list crushed the dream of Santa stopping by Pyongyang this winter.
2. China's unwillingness to grant food export licenses for fear of further driving up the domestic food prices has left a bitter and twisted feeling on the part of NK.
3. The reported rumors of the deteriorating health of the Dear Leader led officials there feeling insecure and overcompensating by acting boisterously.

Call me fantasizing, but I anticipate the six-some will surely get back into action next year, with perhaps some new faces and replenished libido as well as Pyongyang’s food supply.

^O^

[A B]

Would it not be cheaper for S. Korea to put up $10 billion for Kim to move anywhere else but Korea and retire?

As his last act, he merges N. Korea with Korea.

[Olivier Wagner]

[quote start]
Would it not be cheaper for S. Korea to put up $10 billion for Kim to move anywhere else but Korea and retire?

As his last act, he merges N. Korea with Korea.
[quote end]

Then what? They would call the US to spread democracy in North Korea (think Iraq).

No, my understanding is that South Korea wants to keep North Korea the way it is. It is well understood that North Korea will not attack anybody. (First, Kim Jung Ill knows all too well that if he did this, his regime would fall following the attacks of foreign countries. Second, such an attack would be contrary to the Juche ideology of self-reliance: North Korea will not fight first.)

Second, South Korea is scared of Kim Jung Ill's regime falling: the impact of the flow of refugees would be huge and the South Korean economy does not want to have to face that.

The only alernative would be for North Korea to welcome economic growth (i.e. follow the Chinese path). Only once North Korea would have reached a certain level (so that we wouldn't have too many economic refugees) would South Korea be enclined to see North Korea's regime fall - and seek reunification.

[A B]

@Oli

I was very careful to call it Korea, and not S. Korea.

The implied was unification would happen under a new Korean state and both S. and N. would merge into it.

Though it is pretty clear who would come out on top, albeit at a steep price.

The new Korea would disengage from the alliances (US, etc.) that would be unacceptable to China or Russia and end up like Austria --- neutralized.

I am astonished at the insensitivity and blithe disregard shown by the US and EU for the millions of Koreans living in the North who will starve if nothing is done.

A century from now, Koreans are going to look back and compare what happened to the worst atrocities of the Western world --- when likewise, countries who could have done something just sat with their hands folded.

FYI.... Koreans are really kinfolks of China too!

[Olivier Wagner]

Well, both South Korea and North Korea eventually want unification.

The thing is that North Korea want a unified Korea under a communist/dictatorial regime. Whereas South Korea want a unified Korea under a capitalist/democratic regime.

The issues here are much larger than merely what the alliances of the unified Korea would be.

Austria is a capitalist/democratic regime. I don't see how North Korea (meanning the rulling administration) would agree to "end up like Austria".

If North Korea was to follow the Chinese path for a decade or two, then the situation would be different, but we aren't there yet.

North Korea's pace toward capitalism so far has been way slower than what a snail would define as "slow".

[Olivier Wagner]

[quote start]
I am astonished at the insensitivity and blithe disregard shown by the US and EU for the millions of Koreans living in the North who will starve if nothing is done.
[quote end]

I agree. The issue here is that everybody is more concerned by the stability of the whole region than by the humanitarian situation in North Korea.

I agree with you. It is a shame.

[PaZhuLian]

@A B "Koreans are really kinfolks of China too"

I think the problem is that China has been maintaining the somewhat incestual relationships with both sides of the 38th parallel over the years, like dating its distant twin-cousins. There is growing risk that both Koreas become fed-up with the relationship and the recent spat between Chinese and Korean historians seems to be an indication of that simmering discontent.

I agree with you that the Koreas will eventually unify, perhaps when the North finally stop the charade of playing “hard-to-get” while wet-dreaming about dumping its old-flame and getting in bed with the West. But right now, the US and the West like the idea of sitting back and letting China be the bad guy not feeding its old friend.

As for a unified Korea modeled after the “neutralized” Australia. I would argue that although they might have been content with neutrality during the cold-war years, but the Aussies are now increasingly asserting themselves as an up-and-coming global power, boosted by the growing global presence of their mining and hydrocarbon industries—something the Koreans will have difficulties emulating.

[stan]

@PaZhulian
I believe AB and Oliver were refering to Austria (a country in Europe) as opposed to Australia (A stand alone continent/ country in the southern hemisphere)...Stick to your manage a trois analogies as geography seems to be your weak suit.

[Elena]

As others have said, I think the U.S. would consider this a situation similar to the unification of East and West Germany, an internal affair. And hey, it could free up resources for other global adventures (dismantling the DMZ). It would be a bumpy ride, Germany struggled for years (is still struggling?) to meld the two cultures together and get the East up to speed economically.

[Olivier Wagner]

[quote start]
As others have said, I think the U.S. would consider this a situation similar to the unification of East and West Germany, an internal affair. And hey, it could free up resources for other global adventures (dismantling the DMZ). It would be a bumpy ride, Germany struggled for years (is still struggling?) to meld the two cultures together and get the East up to speed economically.
[quote end]

It isn't going to happen overnight: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/a-unified-korea-is-depressing/

[PaZhuLian]

@stan

Hey long time no quarrel dude!

Well, my bad for inadvertently reallocating some much needed “Al” to the otherwise mineral deficient Austria. Haven’t I been saying all along that spelling is not my strong suite? Actually nothing is.

Having said that, Austria makes an even weaker analogy for comrade AB’s vision of a unified Korea. The biggest difference lies in the fact that modern-day Austria’s neutrality, its EU membership notwithstanding, borne out of the dissolution of a once powerful multiethnic empire. When was the last time Korea sit at the helm of any conquering empire? Unless you, risking the wrath of the entire Korean people, want to make some historical connections with the once menacing Mongols and even Japanese.

How do you neutralize someone that was never a threat to anyone except its own people?

[stan]

@PaZhuLian
Sometimes you sound like a man on the cutting edge of narcissism,about to give your body and soul to a back alley sex change surgeon to become the woman you love. However you have made some interesting observations on the subject of North Korea. Right now there are more rumors/reports (again)that the "Dear Leader" is ill.If shorty should die what's your prediction (if any) on the consequence of his punching a ticket to Hell? Do you think the PRC would have any tangible influence on the passing of power? Additionally I would be interested in the thoughts of others on this possibility.

[PaZhuLian]

@stan

Hey I can’t help it that I’m so handsome!

But only for you, I’ll take a moment away from admiring my own reflection and try to take a stab at your curiosities.

“If shorty should die what's your prediction (if any) on the consequence of his punching a ticket to Hell?”
First of all, I couldn’t care less about the final destination of the Dear Leader should he die, whether it’s down there or up there, because it bears zero relevance to the future of Korea. I would think, however, the immediate aftermath will probably be somewhat similar to that of 1976 China. The question is who would be their equivalents of Hua Guofeng (the place-holder) and Deng Xiaoping (the ultimate survivor/reformer). One thing is certain though, that given the fact that Koreans are historically an ingenious and pride people, only they themselves can draw their own roadmap and write their own chapter. That’s why, to answer your next question.

“Do you think the PRC would have any tangible influence on the passing of power?”
Any attempts by Chinese, or the US or the Japanese, etc. for that matter, to meddle in the internal politics in the peninsula will most certainly backfire and propel some ultra-nationalistic figure to power. Having experienced that episode in the 1996 Taiwan Strait, I would expect the Chinese government will be a little smarter this time. Actually, call me crazy, but I think China would not mind at all if the North turned into a democracy and merged with the South, since it would certainly help solve the refuge problem and get the flow reversed. Given their historical mistrust towards the Japanese and to a lesser extent the US, China can always be the devil-you-know for the Koreans.

Now that I’ve laid out my 2cents, would you think less of my opinion because I became a woman? Or you were just saying that because you have being trapped in that closet playing doctor with yourself and hated it?

[stan]

@PaZhuLian
Thanks for the feedback.I agree with you (wonders will never cease)about outside powers injecting themselves into the internal politics of the peninsula. However I feel the PRC above all others should address the issue of aid to the North Koreans facing starvation. The limp wristed whinning of some Tree Hugging bloggers (AB, Oliver etc)bemoaning the EU and the USA for not doing enough for North Korea is nonsensical at best and absurdly biased at worst. China could really do the right thing and spearhead a massive food relief effort to the many deprieved Koreans facing a grime future. The PRC could reflect on the shame of it's past history when millions of it's own citizens died of starvation during the "Great Leap Forward" and say to the world "We will not allow this suffering to continue..We will not let others bear the agony that we once endured."....But then again this is what a great country would do and so far President Hu has set a new standard for mediocrity in leadership. Hell.. his own daughter lives in California if I'm not mistaken. I wonder how he feels about her not living in the Workers Paradise?...I digress..again thanks for your thoughts...oh BTW..I would not think less of you if you became a woman ...I would still think of you as a man who didn't know the meaning of the word "fear"..a man who could laugh in the face of danger and spit in the eye of death...in short, a moron with suicidal tendencies.I'm afraid if I keep complimenting you it will be like breaking wind in an echo chamber...I'll never hear the end of it! Take care baby bolshevik.

[A B]

@Oliv, Pan etc.

Austria was at one point, occupied by the Soviet Union under Stalin and the other 3 allied powers (US, UK, France).

They were able to negotiate for Soviet and Allied troops to leave their country and reconstitute a new country.

A brilliant feat of diplomacy, which you can read about here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_State_Treaty

The parties that can do this, namely a brilliant group of Korean diplomats, have yet to make themselves known (hint, hint, I am writing this for them to read).

It is time to end this tragedy for the Korean people.

I know Beijing will not stand in the way of it.

Russia probably will not.

Let's hope the US and Japan don't.

Then finally, the Republic of Korea.

The sooner it is done, the sooner the Korean people can recover from this vicious genocide of the Korean people.

Note: I am not assigning blame as to who is responsible, I just want to problem solved.

[PaZhuLian]

@stan
China has been arguably the only consistent provider of aid to NK, accounting for about 2/3 of its energy and half of food supplies. Despite all the freebies, however, China really had minimal leverage on NK other than propping up the regime to prevent the flood of refuges should it fail. On the other hand, the US has been the one pulling on China’s sleeves about its food aid policy. The problem is that Pyongyang had wanted a hotdate with Washington all alone, but thanks to the brilliant policy of the Bush Administration, it kept getting dragged to the same kinky fraternity party instead. Now you tell me who should be the one taking the lead so starving people in the North can get out of this fatal attraction vicious cycle?

Hu Jintao may very well end up as weak leader in history…he will be severely tested soon enough, but his daughter’s overseas residency has no more bearings on his leadership than Chairman Mao’s sending his favorite son to fight and die in Korea on his. I guess Mao would be a helluva good leader based on your logic.

I’d love to spend some more time showing you the roadmap for ending hunger and bringing justice to the world. But then again, I seriously doubt that you actually care about any of that. You might pass yourself off as someone speaking out for the starving North Koreans. But in your heart, they are nothing more than garnishes for your special diatribe of the day, easily replaceable with the Tibetans, Burmese, Uygurs, and sometimes even elderly Chinese.

I was hoping you were having something solid to contribute when you asked all those probing questions with all that agonizing tenseness of a constipating person. But in the end, all those build-ups only amounted to, as you put succinctly for yourself, breaking wind in an echo chamber.

I sure hope at least you enjoyed the fragrance of your own imagination.

[PaZhuLian]

@A B

Enough trivia!

You know for the "I-want-my-iPhonee-NOW!" generation at this age of internet, anything you can not get a google hit simply do not exist.

So pleeeeeeeeeeease, with cream on top, enlighten us now!

[stan]

@PaZhuLian
Simply stated China has the resources, proximity and real power to abate starvation immediately. The current aid that you allude to is a type of controlled maintenance designed to keep North Korea from collapsing. This support has no humanitarian intent to it other than keeping a status quo that China seems to cultivate for it's own purposes.(Friendly, rogue, fanatical State...rattle, distract the West etc etc).As long as China sits on it's hands it will always be as mediocre as it's current leadership.The PRC has enormous leverage and influence with North Korea..they just choose not to use it.China is like a big baby..An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.Apologists such as yourself do little to dissuade this image. You live, prosper and consume the fruits of the West and then dump your ideological crap wherever your callous,well travelled butt happens to be.
You should retool your crude bias and hypocrisy to be more opaque.The roadmap you allegedly possess for ending hunger and bringing justice to the world belongs on ebay. It will be worth a lot of money one day to a future historian as he documents Chatterbots of the 21st century.Hell.. I may even bid on it to add my collection of the ravings of village idiots than I have come across in my travels. I will place your treatsie between Das Kapital and Mein Kampf on my bookshelve.You really need to get a grip on something other than your miniscule endowment because excessive self-abuse is softening your brain.. not to mention the hair sprouting on your palms (Righty or Lefty little man?)The end of the world has been postphoned due to the lack of experienced trumpeters so try to grow up. There is a song called "The Great Pretender" that is appropos to your evident, bitter loathing of the West.

"Do you wander through this life,like a child without a care
Do you fear the things you love,do you seek the things you fear
When the world comes crashing down,do you just smile and say
'I am the Great Pretender,Willing to Dream Forever' "

The real world is the place for you.. not the theorized cesspool you call home

[PaZhuLian]

Atta boy, you got me a little bit worried that you might blow your O-ring.

Now that you seem no longer constipated, there is new problem, judging from your last post that was both elongated and loose in substance. You have to know that, by trying this hard, you will be the one that have to clean up the mess in that echo chamber of yours, right?

No need to fret, as my earlier offer of Huggies still stands. Or maybe you would prefer Depend instead? Since your points of reference in literature, music and political jargons seem to betray your age group. Heck I might just throw in a bedpan for you if you ask nicely. But of course you probably already acquired a used-one on ebay a while back.

Since we share such high level of mutual respect, I’ll give you the last words, again. Just bear in mind that, if you still have any travel plan, countries around the world are catching and extraditing people like you now, even in Thailand.

[Pffefer]

Stan,

"The PRC has enormous leverage and influence with North Korea..they just choose not to use it."

What leverage are you referring to? PaZhulian is right, there is not much China can do other than propping it up economically to prevent if from nose diving into a complete collapse, which by the way nobody other than the Americans want to see happen. The North Koreans don't really trust the Chinese, you know?

Unlike the self-righteous and interventionist West, China does not have the tradition or the national pastime to force its scheisse on other nations.

[stan]

@Pffefer
"Scheisse"...Wow.. I know esoteric words too like "delicatessen". It sounds like you would be happier wearing a brown shirt in the 1930's leading us all in a rousing chourus of "Deutschland Uber Alis".

So your conclusion is that China is a Paper Tiger? It amazes me that Pro China apologists like yourself incessantly sell China short when there is heavy lifting to be done on the world stage. In case you missed it a new generation of young Chinese actually volunteered their time,skill, and energy to the Sichuan earthquake victims...they did not need a call to arms from the drones in Beijing rather they sponaniously did the right compassionate thing.This admirable ,home grown altuism will gravitate to just non political causes such as starvation in North Korea if given half the chance..Additionally in case you haven't noticed China is an authoritarian government that can bring vast resources (people,commodities,expertise etc)to bear on any given situation. They do not need to do focus groups, nor form a consensus from their democratically elected officals (they have none) ...they can take a page from Nike's marketing campaign and just do it. What is to prevent China from addressing the people of the world at UN at approaching meeting of the General Assembly about this tragedy? Who is stopping China from formulating a concrete, real time plan of action to confront starvation in it's own backyard? Even the most Machavallian cynics in the Politburo would be happy since this would deflect a lot of critism of China's human rights record by showing it's heart instead of it's current face of stone. If China failed..then at least they tried ..you know the old saying "Nothing ventured ..nothing gained" . You should put your hatred of the west on the back burner and be part of the solution instead of being part of the problem.You might want to read Teddy Roosevelts speech about "The Man in The Arena" for far more eloquent words than mine.Is that simple enough for you little schweinhund?

[stan]

@PaZhuLian..let's tie up some loose ends from our latest exchange.

A/S/L ?.....Nice try in trying to guess my age by my points of reference but I just find many past Artists etc more appealing. Not real nostalgia.. more a matter of taste and style. I mean come on guy,I did not accuse you of having a "senior moment" when you could not tell the difference between Austria and Australia. I'll listen to Nat King Cole and you can pump up the volumne to the latest "Lil" Wayne rap rant.I'll marvel at Yellow Man if reggae is your bag while you can kick back and enjoy Sizzla.I'll be more current in my references going forward.

What is the fixation with Huggies? I figure you to be a "Kai Dang Ku" type of guy. I picture you being held at arms length by your mom as you spew your waste like a leaky milk carton.It kind of mimics your behavior on this blog.

You need an update to your english vernacular dictionary.
Here is a sentence for you to ponder...PaZhuLian was "dipped" (deported) by ICE (Immigration Customs Enforcement)because his marriage to his shorty(Wife,girl friend)was bogus (a sham).Which brings us to the next loose end. I recall Tim at one point refering to overseas chinese as being "irksome"..what with your geographic,dual standard lifestyle hypocracy. I really wonder how you ended up in the west...circumstance? I doubt it. I am sure it is something you sought out and I am sure it is not something you will readly forfeit. Just a supposition mind you.

Last but not least..Thailand!I am sure I saw you on TV being extradited having claimed that you killed JonBenet Ramsey.Allowing for the botched plastic surgery I could have sworn it was you.

However in the spirit of mutual respect I have decided to award you an unclaimed prize from our last contest when you refused to answer any questions. At your direction I will send you a case of "Mao Bow Wow Running Dog Food"...I would not want you to starve to death!

[Pffefer]

Stan (schwein huh? Fits you perfectly),

I take you are deeply bothered by the Germans and people who speak German? Are you by any chance Jewish? Get over with it, just like how the Chinese should get over with its own @##$$%.

Do you follow North Korea at all? If not then I suggest youy start reading Chosun Ilbo. The North Koreans are very suspicious of the Chinese (just as they are suspicious of you people), there is no pro-China faction within the ruling Nodongdang aparatus to speak of as they have all been "eliminated". Dear Leader himself was reportedly telling somone that "the Chinese can not be trusted". Take the reform as an example, the North Koreans are copying the Vietnamese model, not the Chinese one.

What's stopping China from doing this and that? Once again, China simply doesn't do THAT, that is not the Chinese way of doing things. Read up Chinese history and find the answers, my kiddo friend.

Actually, if you people want to help out that much, you can simply perform another regime change. What's stopping you?

TR? TR was a piece of crap in my opinion. Why should I read anything coming out of his big mouth?

[stan]

@Pffefer
Make fun of a German and they morph into an anti-semite? Nah...not you.(I'm not Jewish btw if that makes you feel better).
It seems you believe that China's roll and capabilities in the world were written in stone many years ago. I disagree. Let's see how it plays out.Here is a quote from TR for you.."It is by no means necessary that a great nation should always stand at the heroic level. But no nation has the root of greatness in it unless in time of need it can rise to the heroic mood."

A couple of loose ends ..some regime changes are for the better..think May 8th 1945.Also everytime you ruin some of your well crafted observations with your vulgar bias of the West.. it is like you are suddenly on a mission to lower the collective IQ of this forum by a factor of 10...cut it out little dummkopf!

[bemis]

Could "stan" be TWIN BROTHER of the ogre "NANHEGROUCH"? Ugh! Hereby awarding Gold Medal Prize for REPULSIVENESS to them BOTH! (Gonna dob them in, for deportation).