Jerusalem Post duped by video

When I was in Syria last month, one of the strangest rumors sweeping Damascus centered on a brutal honor killing said to have taken place in southern Syria.

The gruesome video shows a young girl being dragged from her home where she is mercilessly stoned to death in the street by a group of men as security officers look on.

The grainy cell phone video, taken in April in Iraq, showed members of the small Yazidis sect killing one of their young girls for sparking up a romance with a Sunni Muslim boy.

The killing and video created an international furor that was followed last month by the most deadly terrorist attack since Sept. 11, 2001. The series of car bombs, which appeared to be retaliation for the April killing, decimated two Yazidis villages in northern Iraq.

Last month in Damascus, the same video was being feverishly sent around by e-mail and cell phone. Only Syrians were telling each other this was an honor killing by the Druze minority in southern Syria.

Even though it was demonstrably false, people were so convinced it was true that some claimed they knew people who had been eyewitnesses to the killing and taken the video themselves.

Now the video has made its way south, where The Jerusalem Post posted an "exclusive" story prominently featured on its site claiming that the video showed Hamas members taking part in killing a girl in Gaza.

"After more than 20 years in the business, and just when you think you've seen it all, there's always something that shocks you more than ever," wrote Post reporter Khaled Abu Toameh, who covers Palestinian affairs for his newspaper.

The problem, as bloggers like Conflict Blotter noted, is that the story isn't true.

The Post eventually removed the story, which did not appear in its print edition, after realizing the mistake.

Khaled Abu Toameh told me that he had been the victim of a Fatah disinformation campaign meant to discredit Hamas in Gaza.

"It was a set-up," he said. "We fell victim to their lies."

Khaled said a Fatah official gave him the video and provided him with phone numbers for two "eyewitnesses" to the event.

He refused to reveal his sources and said he is still trying to figure out what happened and who is to blame. The Fatah officials claim that they, too, were duped, Khaled said.

Khaled said he hadn't seen the video before and didn't know much about last month's decimation of the Yazidis villages in Iraq.

This incident actually serves to underscore a fundamental shortcoming in the Israeli media: Newspapers here often cover Palestinian affairs without going to Gaza to see things for themselves.

The Israeli military bars Israeli citizens like Khaled from going into Gaza.That means he is immediately at a disadvantage and has to rely on what he is told, not what he can see.

Khaled also said, remarkably, that The Jerusalem Post has no Palestinian colleagues in Gaza to be their eyes and ears on the ground, something that appears to be the case for other Israeli newspapers.

That means that Israeli coverage of Gaza often relies on a mix of wire service reports, television coverage, phone calls and what they are told by the Israeli military.

Most of the time, especially when there is open warfare in Gaza, that is a major disservice to readers in Israel and around the world who rely on the Israeli media for solid reporting.

And, as The Post incident makes clear, it can lead to embarrassing errors.

UPDATE: Khaled writes his own defense today in The Jerusalem Post. He says the video was given to him by a member of the Palestinian Authority General Intelligence services, who also provided him with the names of two "eyewitnesses." Khaled says the two can't be found and people answering the phones he called before now say he's got the wrong numbers...

The Morality Police on patrol

Members of the Morality Police on patrol in Ramallah

The young man in a baseball cap anxiously steps aside as he sees the police officers with large red armbands and machine guns coming his way.

"Everything is fine in here," says the boy as the patrol moves through the Ramallah mall in search of trouble makers.

Only this unit isn't looking for shoplifters, thieves or carjackers: These officers are looking for morally corrupt men and boys smoking, eating or drinking in public during this holy Muslim month of Ramadan.

The Morality Police have arrived in the West Bank.

Just two weeks old, creation of this new unit is something of a surprise in Ramallah, which prides itself on being the most cosmopolitan city in the West Bank.

Women here are as likely to be wearing tight jeans, make up and well-styled hair as they are to be dressed in head scarves and modest clothes.

Ramallah has a small, but vibrant, nightlife with its own network of bars and restaurants that feature jazz bands, international singers, popular local artists and, occasionally, all-night dance parties that lure people from as far away as Tel Aviv.

If there was going to be a Morality Police, people here expected it to be formed in Gaza, where Hamas is in charge and Palestinian culture is more conservative and traditional.

Instead, Palestinians can thank the secular Fatah for introducing Morality Police to the West Bank.

And, in fact, during two days of patrols earlier this week, there seemed to be broad support for the new unit.

Young Christian girls, store owners in shopping malls, groups of mall rats, and even some who lost work because of a police crackdown on sidewalk vendors praised the Morality Police as a good thing.

Among those most supportive were Nora and Fadiya, two 20-year-old Christian college students who said the unit was doing a good job of chasing away groups of boys that gather in the main Ramallah square to gawk at girls and make lewd comments.

"We need this for our country so we can walk freely in the streets without guys disturbing us," said Nora.

For many Westerners, the idea of a morality police conjures up images of notorious Taliban-type units from the Department for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice arresting women caught eating ice cream or beating men with beads that were too short.

The Palestinian Morality Police mission is much more modest. And the work is done with a much lighter touch.

For now, the unit is on the hunt primarily for boys and men smoking, drinking or eating in public during the daily Ramadan fast. The officers politely prod groups of boys to move along, tell store owners to stop placing their goods on the sidewalk, and ask guys to stop loitering in the streets.

There are no plans to ask women to cover their hair or wear more modest clothes.

"The name of the unit suggests that we are here to restrict their freedoms," said Murad Qundah, the ambitious 27-year-old police captain in charge of the Morality Police squad. "On the contrary, we are here to protect their freedoms."

So far, the unit has arrested about two dozen people. Publicly, the unit likes to perpetuate the myth that those arrested are going to be in jail until the end of Ramadan.

In reality, Qundah quietly admitted, people are being set free in a matter of hours or days at the most.

On Thursday afternoon, Qundah and his foot patrol rushed across town where another unit had collared a confused young boy accused of smoking in public.

As one of his men linked arms with the boy and led him away for questioning, Qundah led a second team to the restaurant where the boy had been caught smoking.

At the Steak House and Coffee Shop, Qundah banged on the glass door covered over with yellowing newspaper. But the place was dark.

At the police station, Qundah and a second interrogator chastised the boy for smoking in public and tried to heap shame on his head. They said they were ashamed that a Muslim would smoke in public during the Ramadan fast. Then they agreed to let the boy go if he agreed to sign a statement vowing never to publicly break the Ramadan fast again.

At a time when the Palestinian Authority is fractured, the Israeli military is staging ongoing raids in West Bank cities, and Hamas is in control of Gaza, it might seem like a strange waste of resources to create a whole unit charged with hunting down people stealing a puff or sneaking a falafel sandwich during Ramadan.

But that's just the point: The Morality Police isn't really about chasing down nicotine addicts. It's all part of Fatah's grand plan to revamp its image and cripple Hamas in the West Bank.

Fatah and PA President Mahmoud Abbas have already done a good job in isolating Hamas in Gaza and forcing most of their supporters in the West Bank to switch into silent mode while they wait things out.

The other half - reforming Fatah's image as a corrupt and ineffective force - has been a long time coming.

When Hamas won the PA elections last year, Fatah admitted that it had lost touch with the people and needed to do something to revamp its image. They didn't. At least, not until now.

With the support of the U.S., Abbas has dispatched dozens of new police officers to key points around Ramallah, the de facto Palestinian capital.

Now comes the Morality Police. Qundah has grand plans for the unit. He wants to create a hot line, open a special Morality Department to handle complaints, and expand its mission.

For now, Qundah and his unit are already succeeding in helping Fatah boost its popularity in the West Bank. And, if that trend continues, it's certainly going to be more important for Fatah and the PA than corralling a teenage boy for stealing away to grab a smoke...

Mirrorgirl

Mirrorgirl by Ram Katzir

"A lot of anger and frustration in the world comes from the fact that people want to be somewhere other than where they are," Israeli-born artist Ram Katzir said in an interview three years ago.

It's a concept Katzir that has been central for Katzir, whose work has delved into everything from political assassination and the Holocaust to transience and displacement.

In 1994, Katzir installed a guerrilla piece near the Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv as a response to the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin.

For the piece, Traffic Light, Katzir replaced the normal wait figure on the pedestrian crossing light with a figure aiming a rifle down the street. (The piece was taken down by the city after a newspaper story appeared about Katzir's work.)

Katzir may be best known, though, for Your Coloring Book, a traveling exhibition that encouraged visitors to sit at kid-sized or over-sized picnic tables where they could color seemingly innocuous drawings. It is only at the end of the book that people discover that the images are from the Nazi era and show soldiers, Hitler patting a fawn, children doing the Nazi salute, etc...

When Katzir brought Your Coloring Book to Israel in 1997, it generated intense anger that left the 28-year-old artist feeling like a pariah in his own country.

Katzir has a new exhibition in Belgium featuring Mirrorgirl (above), a fantastic, otherworldly piece that shows a woman wearing either a Muslim hijab or nun's habit. As you approach the figure, you come face to face with a dark, distorted image of yourself reflected in her face.

"My work is deliberately ambiguous, inviting the viewer to stop, think and double take," says Katzir. "I like to offer people a chance to question their views and beliefs. Torn between likes and dislikes, it is very easy to forget that it is our subjectivity that colors the world. We often confuse projection with perception."

The next Palestinian president?

Some years ago I had a chat with a Palestinian pundit who described PA President Mahmoud Abbas as "the accidental president."

Though he is considered a decent, well-intentioned diplomat, Abbas has never been viewed as a strong leader. Certainly not one that could fill the vacuum left by the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004.

At 72, Abbas is tired and weary, something that often comes across at public events when it seems as if he is being crushed by the weight of his responsibilities.

Chances are Abbas won't run for president again, and everyone is looking for his successor.

One of the names most often mentioned is Marwan Barghouti, the 48-year-old Fatah leader (right) serving five life sentences after being convicted of orchestrating a series of deadly attacks on Israelis.

Barghouti is at the top of the prisoner exchange list that Hamas gave to Israel as part of the stalled negotiations meant to free Gilad Shalit, the young Israeli soldier captured by Palestinian militants last year on the Gaza Strip border.

This week, Israeli leaders began seriously floating the idea of freeing Barghouti.

"Anyone who is thinking about security of human beings in Israel understands that there is no other way but to release Barghouti, because he is the most powerful figure on the Palestinian side," Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, a Labor leader and minister of national infrastructure in Israeli PM Ehud Olmert's government, told Army Radio. "In my humble opinion we are talking about a man who is going to be the next leader of the Palestinians."

"In my opinion he is a murderer, but Arafat was no less a murderer, yet Rabin extended a hand to him," he added.

This morning, Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper reported that a majority of Olmert's cabinet would favor releasing Barghouti as part of a prisoner exchange for Shalit, so long as no other Palestinians with so-called "blood on their hands" are freed.

"If the list of hundreds of prisoners which Hamas is demanding is reduced a little, or, to be more exact, the heavy murderers because of whom Israel is not prepared to accept the list are removed from it, there would be a majority in the government in favor, even if the list includes Barghouti," a senior Labor Party source told the paper.

Barghouti has something Abbas never will: Respect on "the street," with Hamas leaders and among the political elite.

From his prison cell, Barghouti has worked to establish himself as a diplomat. He routinely issues statements calling for Palestinian unity. He helped draft a platform signed by prisoners across the political spectrum that helped lay the groundwork for the now-fractured PA unity government. And politicians regularly seek his advice and counsell.

But he has never been tested as a politician on the world stage, and there are serious doubts about Barghouti's abilities as a diplomat and negotiator.

Still, the options are limited. Fatah's old leadership is largely discredited and viewed as corrupt. Barghouti represents the new guard that has a chance to start with a cleaner slate.

When Israel thought it was in its interests, it has freed people like Barghouti before. The fact that the idea is being floated again suggests that Israeli leaders understand that the idea of freeing Barghouti should be in play.

Israel's riddle wrapped in mystery

It has been nearly three weeks since Israel staged its mysterious attack on Syria that produced an even more mysterious cone of silence. There have been theories, alternative theories and the ever-popular conspiracy theories. There have questionable leaks and plausible explanations.

Still, Israel, the U.S. and the rest of those in the know - including Syrian leaders -- have all managed to keep the whole story from getting out.

George Friedman at Stratfor offers the latest rundown on the various theories, including the wild notion that North Korea was helping to ship nuclear material to Syria to be used to create a "dirty bomb" for Hezbollah so that the militant group in Lebanon could strike Israel.

For those who don't have the time or energy to read this worthwhile report, here's the final two paragraphs:

At a time when the United States is signaling hostile intentions toward Iran, the events in Syria need to be understood, and the fact that they remain opaque is revealing. The secrecy is designed to make a lot of people nervous. Interestingly, the Israelis threw a change-up pitch the week after the attack, signaling once again that they wanted to open talks with the Syrians -- a move the Syrians quickly rebuffed.

When events get so strange that interpretation is a challenge, it usually indicates it was intended that way, that the events are significant and that they could point to further instability. We do not know whether that is true, but Israel and the United States have certainly worked hard to create a riddle wrapped in a mystery.

Axis of Evil Comedy

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is getting quite a welcome in NYC.

The president of Columbia University invites him to speak, takes some serious flak and then introduces Ahmadinejad by calling him a "petty and cruel dictator." Ouch!

Seems like a good time for a short respite with Maz Jobrani, an Iranian-American comedian with the Axis of Evil Comedy Tour.

If you like this clip, you won't have to go far on YouTube to find the hilarious full performance...

Israeli writers urge talks with Hamas

Ever since Hamas won control of the Palestinian Authority 20 months ago, there have been isolated calls from well-respected figures for Israel to talk to the Islamist movement that spearheaded the dispiriting suicide bombing campaign of the second intifada.

Among those who have urged talks with Hamas: Former Mossad leader Efraim Halevy and former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Now, a group of prominent Israeli intellectuals is joining the call.

A.B. Yehoshua, Amos Oz, and David Grossman have all signed a petition urging Israel to negotiate a cease fire with Hamas to stop the near-daily volleys of Qassam rockets being fired into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip.

The influential writers argue that Israel has been negotiating indirectly with Hamas in an attempt to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, a young Israeli soldier captured by Palestinian militants 15 months ago in the Gaza Strip. So why not talk to them about stopping the rocket fire?

The appeal comes just days after a Hamas figure was rebuffed when he tried to launch cease fire talks with Israel.

It's not likely the petition will lead to any rapid change in Israeli policy. But it is a reflection of a growing sentiment from people across the political spectrum who believe that no lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians will hold without including Hamas.

For now, Israel and the U.S. continue their campaign to isolate Hamas in Gaza. Israel has declared Gaza a "hostile entity" and the government is considering new measures, which may be illegal under international law, to disrupt or cut off the flow of power and fuel to Gaza as a way to put more pressure on Hamas to moderate its views.

There were reports over the weekend that Israeli leaders are looking at ways to completely sever ties by closing its borders with Gaza. That would shut Gaza's main economic lifeline and funnel everything in and out of Gaza's southern border with Egypt.

Joined in fasting, separated by religion

Sunrise over Jerusalem on Saturday

The sun rises above the Jordan Valley haze on the quietest day of the year in Jerusalem.

The normal buzz of traffic and the sound of honking horns are gone. Instead, from my rooftop on this Saturday morning, you can hear the sound of Muslims and Jews praying as they enter a rare day of parallel religious fasting.

My Jerusalem home sits right on the old Green Line that divided Jordanian-controlled East Jerusalem from Israeli-controlled West Jerusalem.

Muslim families on the street below me have strung celebratory Ramadan lights from their roof tops. Children have been setting off fireworks at night after they break the daily fast.

Before dawn, the quiet gives way to the sound of a lone muezzin, whose voice crackles to life on over a mosque loudspeaker from the valley as he calls the faithful to prayer.

Soon, his call is joined by others from what sounds like a dozen nearby mosques. Their voices quickly blend and echo through the valley.

On one side of my apartment -- no more than 50 yards from the largest, most devout Muslim family on the street below -- is a large, devout Jewish family that has spent weeks preparing for the holiday season.

The kids took turns blowing the ram's horn that they used during Rosh Hashanah to celebrate the coming of the Jewish New Year. The mother and grandmother have spent days preparing holiday meals.

On the holy days, the family gathers in their living room for prayers and the sound of their voices filters through my windows.

This Saturday, the two families are joined in a way by taking part in the same ritual of fasting. The Jewish family next door is fasting for Yom Kippur. The Muslim family below is fasting for Ramadan.

These two families live in the same neighborhood in the same city, yet they have never met.

Many people consider the fate of the Palestinian refugees to be the most intractable issue facing negotiations. I think a good argument can be made that it is the future of Jerusalem.

To the north, just through the trees, you can see the outer wall of the Old City and the glow of lights from the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam -- which just happens to sit on the old site of the First and Second Jewish Temples.

Right below the Dome and Al Aqsa is the Western Wall, the most holy sight for Jews, many of whom come here to pray for, among other things, construction of the Third Jewish Temple, something that would require destruction of the Muslim holy sites.

A variety of formulas have been developed over the years for dealing with the dueling demands. The idea that probably has the biggest chance of securing some long-term calm is establishing an international force to oversee the contested areas, placing the Muslim holy sites under Palestinian control and affirming Israeli control of the Western Wall.

This idea is exceptionally volatile and, when floated in past negotiations, it has helped torpedo promising peace deals.

Hard-liners on both sides eschew the notion of dividing the city and would still be able to rally the faithful around the idea of a divided Jerusalem.

On the other major sticking points there are possible solutions:

Land can be divided and exchanged so long as both sides see the final boundaries as fair.

Many Palestinian refugees would probably be willing to relinquish their demands that they be allowed to return to homes inside what is now Israel - if they are granted compensation and a place to live outside the refugee camps.

Even with Jerusalem, it should be possible to make the city the capital of both an Israeli and Palestinian state so long as the two sides agree on an equitable division of the neighborhoods.

But, when it comes to the religious sites, the two sides are fighting over the same stones. And other stones just won't do.

The issue is coming to life again as negotiators here try to develop a new peace plan that can be presented at an expected Bush administration peace conference. And the ideas being floated are already being contested by critics who, if the latest talks gather any serious momentum, could torpedo the latest attempt to resolve this conflict...

Proof of God's existence

Since today is Yom Kippur and we are in the early part of Ramadan, it seems like a good chance to focus on God for a second.

Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens, and Sam Harris have all devoted a lot of time and energy to challenging God and religion. Dawkins in particular is leading a campaign to persuade billions of people that God doesn't exist.

Well, this week, in a way, God proved that he does exist. And he did it in a court no less.

God's revelation came in the form of not one, but two court filings made in response to a Nebraska state senator who is suing God for allegedly causing "widespread death, destruction and terrorization of millions upon millions of the Earth's inhabitants."

God wasted no time in responding.

God said he was immune from earthly prosecution. God argued that the court lacked jurisdiction and that he should not be blamed for giving humans free will to decide what to do with life.

And, if there is any doubt about the veracity of these court filings, the witness is listed as St. Michael the Archangel...

The best and the worst

Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper decided to start the Jewish New Year off by asking Israelis who they thought were the best and worst prime ministers in the nation's nearly 60 year history.

Two leaders emerged in a statistica tie for the best: Menachem Begin, the renegade Jewish resistance leader who helped found Israel and then signed an historic 1978 peace deal with Egypt; and David Ben-Gurion, Israel's first prime minister.

Also no surprise who Israelis think is the worst ever: Current PM Ehud Olmert, the Ariel Sharon stand-in/successor who led Israel back into the tar pit of southern Lebanon last summer in a war that severely tarnished the nation's pride.

Right behind Olmert on the "worst ever" list are the prime minister's biggest rivals: Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the former PM and current Labor leader, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the former PM and current Likud leader.

Nearly 80 percent of the respondents ranked these as the top three worst Israeli leaders, something that should make the next campaign a fairly grim and dispiriting affair.

Here's the full results:

Q: Who Was the Best Prime Minister in Israel’s History?

Menachem Begin: 26.8 percent

David Ben-Gurion: 25.6 percent

Yitzhak Rabin: 17.4 percent

Ariel Sharon: 9.1 percent

Yitzhak Shamir: 5.4% percent

Levi Eshkol: 5.4 percent

Binyamin Netanyahu: 4.4 percent

Golda Meir: 3.0 percent

Shimon Peres: 2.5 percent

Moshe Sharett: 0.9 percent

Ehud Barak: 0.2 percent

Ehud Olmert: 0.0 percent

Q: In your opinion, who was the State of Israel’s worst prime minister?

Ehud Olmert—39.4 percent

Ehud Barak—19.3 percent

Benjamin Netanyahu—18.0 percent

Ariel Sharon—6.6 percent

Yitzhak Shamir—5.5 percent

Yitzhak Rabin—3.5 percent

Golda Meir—3.4 percent

Shimon Peres—2.2 percent

Moshe Sharett—1.0 percent

Levi Eshkol—0.7 percent

Menachem Begin—0.3 percent

David Ben-Gurion—0.0 percent

Substance over form

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas talk to the media on Thursday after their meeting in Ramallah, West Bank. (AP/Muhammed Muheisen)

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wrapped up her fifth trip to Jerusalem in nine months by telling reporters that the Middle East gathering later this fall "has to be substantive and advance the cause of a Palestinian state."

After meeting with PA President Abbas at his Ramallah headquarters, Rice told reporters that "participants must not simply meet for the sake of meeting."

Rice's statement was clearly designed to assuage disgruntled Palestinian negotiators who are concerned that their Israeli counterparts aren't willing to tackle the most difficult, substantive issues facing the two sides.

On the eve of Rice's latest visit, Abbas aides warned that they might not attend the meeting if it does not get into detail. Israeli negotiators say there is only so far the two sides can go without creating false and dangerous expectations when things could fail.

Rice's statement probably came as a much-needed salve for the Palestinians, especially since the secretary yesterday gave at least her tacit endorsement of Israel's decision to declare the Gaza Strip a "hostile entity."

By doing so, Israel says it is now free to cut off power, fuel and other supplies to Gaza until Hamas relinquishes its control over the area. The United Nations and human rights groups are already warning that any such steps would be a violation of human rights and international law.

Rice is certain to return to the region again in the coming weeks as the meeting, now expected to be in mid-November, gets closer.

There is still widespread skepticism about the Bush administration plans. But Rob Malley, a former top Middle East negotiator for President Clinton during the last substantive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at Camp David in 2000, said he sees a chance for some momentum.

Malley compared the fall meeting to the U.S. military "surge" that helped improve security in parts of Iraq and generate enough signs of progress that it has given the Bush administration some breathing room to pursue its current policies.

"I think there's enough pressure on all of them not to fail that they'll come up with something," said Malley, who now heads the Middle East and North Africa division of the International Crisis Group. "It won't have all the time lines that the Palestinians want, it won't have the vagueness that the Israelis want. But they will have enough that they can say that this is the first time in a long time that the two sides have been able to agree on where they want to go."

That kind of agreement, Malley said, would give the Bush administration the ability to say: Give this a chance to play out.

As Malley well knows, the problems always arise when the two sides get down to specifics. And, once again, even if the major players sign off on a new kind of road map, the more serious problems will come when the two sides really do get into substance.

"It may, after all of this, we will go back to this as a reference point rather than a turning point in the resolution of this conflict," he said.

Gaza declared an "enemy entity"

After weeks and months of hand wringing and anxiety over how to handle the ceaseless volleys of rockets coming from Hamas-controlled Gaza, the Israeli government today officially declared Gaza an "enemy entity."

This, in theory, allows Israel to tighten the screws on Hamas by, as some Israeli hawks have called for, cutting off the supply of water, power and fuel to the 1.5 million Palestinians who live in the isolated Mediterranean region.

But taking any of those steps would generate a storm of international outrage because it could rightly be viewed as a kind of unjust collective punishment that penalizes innocent Palestinians for the actions of the Hamas-run administration.

The "enemy entity" declaration could be a step by Israel to put more pressure on Hamas, which has managed to solidify its hold on Gaza and reach a point of temporary stability, without actually implementing any of the steps to cut off vital supplies.

Gaza was temporarily plunged into darkness last month when the EU cut off fuel aid for Gaza. That generated widespread outrage and criticism.

Israel has been searching for a way to deal with the near-daily volleys of Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza. Many Israeli leaders want to avoid a major military invasion of Gaza, which could prove costly, deadly, unpopular and still not solve the problem.

It's unlikely that the declaration itself will scare Hamas, but it also seems unlikely that cutting off power, water or fuel would do much more than create even more resentment among the Palestinians in Gaza...

UPDATE:

Israeli leaders say "the clock is ticking" on their threat to cut off fuel and power to Gaza. As expected, Israel made it clear that they will not put the squeeze on right away, but will take measures in steps to try and choke off support for Hamas.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak also rattled his sword a bit and said they are moving ever closer to a military operation in Gaza.

Since the announcement coincided with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's latest visit to the region, Israel most assuredly informed her of the plans before the decision was made.

For her part, Rice basically gave Israel the green light by telling reporters that the U.S. also considers Hamas an "enemy entity."

Hamas leaders have denounced the action as a "declaration of war," though it's not likely they will follow through with any dramatic response.

Earlier this week, Hamas leader/deposed PM Ismail Haniyeh reportedly met with Islamic Jihad and asked them to stop firing rockets into Israel during the holy month of Ramadan, which began a few days ago.

Any move to cut off fuel, power or water to Gaza is likely to be challenged. As The New York Times story notes:

"Under international law, Israel is considered an occupying power in Gaza, even though it has removed its troops and settlers. Denying civilians access to the necessities of life is considered collective punishment and a violation of international law under both the Hague and Geneva conventions although the amounts involved could be subject to dispute. Electricity, water and gasoline are considered by many, like the Israeli rights lobbying organizations B’Tselem and Gisha, as well as Oxfam and other groups, to be necessities. But the United States argued, when it bombed power plants in Belgrade during the Kosovo war, that electricity furthered Serbia’s war effort; Israel argued similarly when it bombed Gaza’s main power station in July 2006, after the capture of one of its soldiers."

This afternoon, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also warned Israel that its actions to cut off supplies to Gaza would be a violation of human rights.

"The sun is more reliable than the Saudis"

There are many ways to describe Shimon Peres: Warrior-statesman. Israeli president. Nobel peace prize winner. Three-time prime minister.

But, at 84, and two months into his newest role as Israel's ninth president, Peres might best liked to be described as an eternal optimist.

For the first time as president, Peres met today with about 100 members of the international press.

And the Israeli leader who helped broker the landmark 1993 Oslo Accords came away sounding like the Israeli version of Al Gore: An veteran statesmen who is turning his attentions to improving the environment and the economy.

He touted a plan to work with Jordan to create a joint electric car factory and said Israel would give the cars away free in Israel.

He vowed to turn the Israeli equivalent of the White House into a "Green House" by adding solar power and recycling water.

"We feel that the sun is more reliable than the Saudis," said Peres. "The sun, apparently, is more permanent, more democratic and more friendly, and more objective. And we have a lot of sun and we don't have anything in the way of oil."

The presidency in Israel is typically a ceremonial post with little power or influence. But that's not Peres' style. He is already becoming one of the more active and activist president's in the nation's history.

Peres took over the presidency in July after his predecessor, Moshe Katsav, resigned after pleading guilty to sexual harassment in a plea bargain that allowed him to avoid jail time over more serious allegations of rape.

Last week, in one of his highest profile events so far, Peres received a visit from Madonna, who told the president that she has become an "ambassador for Judaism" since embracing the Jewish mystic religious traditions of Kabbalah that have prompted her to take the Hebrew name Esther.

"I hope the human mind and common sense overcome extremism," the pop icon told Peres.

Despite the Hamas takeover of Gaza, simmering tensions with Syria, the rise of Iran and threats of its nuclear program, the danger from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and skepticism about ongoing peace talks with the Palestinians, Peres said he remains optimistic.

"In spite of all the troubles we see in our time, the world is on a new track," said Peres.

Peres sought to reassure Israelis and the world that the mysterious Israeli attack on a Syrian target last week would not lead to a new war.

"I do believe the nervousness in our relations with Syria are over,'" he said. "We are ready to negotiate directly with the Syrians for peace."

The president's comments came one day after Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also tried to reduce tensions by telling reporters that he has "a lot of respect" for Syrian President Bashar Assad and wants peace.

Peres and Olmert  both might want peace, especially after Israel raised tensions by launching the air strike. And Syria is probably in no rush to stage a counter-attack. But, in the absence of good information about the strike, the controversy remains an unresolved puzzle.

And there is no guarantee that Syria is satisfied with the state of affairs.

Although Peres remains an optimist, he said the chances for peace are always short and fragile.

"The window of opportunity, like every window, is made out of glass and you have to be careful not to break it," he said.

Israel moves to muzzle press

An Arab-Israeli woman stands at an observation point in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, close to a sign showing the distance to Jerusalem and Damascus.  (AP Photo/Sebastian Scheiner)

Amid the swirling uncertainty surrounding Israel's apparent air strike on Syria, the Israeli government is trying to muzzle media coverage of the volatile incident.

Earlier this week, Israel's military censor sent out a new order (see below) meant to restrict coverage of the strike. The updated order, good through September 30, requires reporters to seek written approval from the censor before publishing anything on the incident. This includes information that has already appeared in other papers around the world, on television, or on the radio.

The order is another sign of Israel's concern about the air strike, which has dramatically raised tensions at a time when fears of a Syria-Israel war were subsiding.

What exactly happened last week remains very clouded, but a number of theories have been raised:

1. A strike on a nuclear facility under construction. The most explosive rationale raised so far came in The Washington Post, which reported that Syria may be receiving help from North Korea to build a nuclear facility. A former Israeli official told the paper that the strike was on a facility "capable of making unconventional weapons." The story said that Israeli intelligence has provided the U.S. with new images of the Syrian facility, though nothing has been made public.

2. A test run for an attack on Iran. Another theory being floated is that Israel was testing Syrian air defenses to see if they could zip through Syria en route to attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. There is considerable doubt about Israel's ability to carry out this kind of air strike, but the idea itself is enough to raise alarms from Damascus to Tehran. There is even a theory floating around Washington that Israel and the United States are considering a joint attack: Israel would hit Syria while the United States hit Iran. It's difficult to imagine this scenario playing out in the real world, but if Israel and the U.S. were somehow able to persuade a skeptical and wary world that Syria and Iran were both developing nuclear weapons, I guess it is within the realm of possibility...

3. An attack on arms destined for Hezbollah. Israel has publicly complained for nearly a year that the world has not done enough to stop the flow of arms to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. Israel believes that Hezbollah has amassed more firepower since the United Nations truce ended last summer's 34-day war. But the location of the apparent strike in northeastern Syria is not considered the traditional route for arms, making this theory less likely.

4. An attack on Russian weapons. Israel has complained that Russia is helping to arm Syria with a $10 billion weapons deal that includes advanced anti-aircraft firepower. That has led to speculation that Israel was targeting such weapons before they were operational. Why? To ensure that they are no threat to a possible strike on Iran. (See #2.)

5. An intelligence-gathering mission gone awry. The most innocuous theory so far is that this was an Israeli intelligence-gathering mission that Syria has decided to turn into an international incident. But U.S. officials have confirmed that the Israeli military struck a target, so this theory has been sidelined.

The Israeli action followed months of rumors in the Israeli press, generated largely by Israeli intelligence officials, that Syria was preparing for war. Even though there is scant evidence to support that idea, the stories generated plenty of public anxiety in Israel.

Hours before the Israeli strike, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly sent word to Syria that it had no hostile intentions. Syrian leaders complained bitterly this week that Olmert's message was a diversion meant to get Syria to drop its guard before the strike.

Today, after plenty of public protest, Syria's deputy foreign minister said that his country has no plans to stage a military counter-strike. Syria has yet to offer any significant details about the strike, but government officials claim that the Israeli attack caused no significant damage.

As for the censorship order, it is meant to apply to all journalists working in Israel, including the international media. It's not clear if this order is a renewed attempt by the military censors to flex their muscles. In reality, existing censorship rules cover coverage of the incident. But the censors apparently felt a need to issue the temporary new order to emphasize the point.

Reporters working here are required to sign a document from the Military Censor that outlines what can be reported about the Israeli military and when stories are supposed to be submitted to the censor for approval. At various times, the censor has tried, with limited success, to extend its power.

In reality, few, if any, international reporters submit stories to the censor. In my two years here, which has included coverage of last summer's war with Hezbollah, I have never submitted a story to the Israeli censorship office.

Below is a translation of the order:

Translation of latest order for Israel's Military Censor:

1. From the moment of the publication of this order, the publication of the following type of information is forbidden without written approval of the main censor prior to publication: publication in direct or indirect manner of all information, description or details -- be it in allusive or direct manner -- on the activities of the IDF that have happened or are in the process of happening in enemy territory. This includes any link between the state of Israel and events that occur in enemy territory.

2. The information banned above includes any information that may have been published on radio, television, Internet, either by journalists or by officials.

3. This order concerns all information communicated officially or off-record by political and military officials.

4. This order is valid until 30 September 2007

An eight point peace plan

This afternoon, the Maan News Agency released a copy of what it says is a working draft of a declaration of principles being hammered out by the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators.

The eight-point plan isn't detailed, but it does establish a framework on all the major issues, from settlements and borders to Jerusalem and refugees.

It calls for the creation of a Palestinian state "within" the 1967 borders based on "security needs, demographic developments and humanitarian requirements."

It says that Israel will keep some of its West Bank settlements and give up an equal amount of Israeli land in exchange.

On Jerusalem: "There will be two capitals in Jerusalem, one for Israel and one for Palestine. The Israeli neighborhoods will be under Israeli sovereignty and the Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty."

It calls for the creation of a special authority to oversee the contested religious sites in Jerusalem's Old City.

And it vaguely calls for a "just" solution to the exceptionally emotional issue of Palestinian refugees.

It ends with an appeal to the Arab world to embrace the idea.

Israeli officials declined to comment on the document, which was originally written in Hebrew.

Even so, this plan does appear to be a pretty good indicator of what the two sides would like to present at the Bush administration "don't-call-it-a-summit" meeting.

The idea is to use the meeting to embrace a plan like this and then use it as a launching pad for more intensive peace talks.

There is plenty in here for detractors on both sides to tear apart.

Ultra-orthodox political leader Eli Yishai, a minister in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's cabinet, is already warning that he will abandon Olmert's coalition if the peace deal gives up Israeli control of the holy Jewish sites in the Old City.

Hamas is opposed to any deal that cedes more West Bank land to Israel and stands by the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes in what is now Israel.

Still, it does seem possible that Olmert and Abbas could reach agreement on a framework along these lines to the November meeting. There are plenty of hurdles between a declaration of principles like this and peace in the Middle East. But it could at least create some significant momentum in peace talks that have been all-but-dead for years.

Rocket strike fuels calls for Gaza invasion

Israeli soldiers are seen at the site where a rocket, fired from the Gaza Strip, hit an army training base near the coastal city of Ashkelon. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

The Israeli government is in the midst of a tense debate over how to respond to the most serious Palestinian rocket attack to ever come from the Gaza Strip.

Before dawn today, Palestinian militants fired a rocket that hit an Israel military training base less than a mile from the Gaza Strip border. One soldier was critically wounded, four others were seriously wounded and seven received moderate injuries. Another 50 more soldiers were lightly wounded, according to the Israeli military.

Coming a week after another Palestinian rocket landed near an Israeli day care center, the latest strike is providing potent fodder for Israeli leaders like former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who want to see Israel stage a major military operation in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is conferring with his aides and allies and trying to decide how to respond.

At the moment, though, it looks as if Israel is going to refrain from staging a major military response.

Israel is still dealing with the fallout from last week's dispute with Syria, which has now accused Israel of staging an air strike on an unnamed Syrian target.

Turkey is also demanding answers after finding fuel tanks near its border. Israel remains silent about the incident, but Syria is keeping the issue alive.

Because of that, according to Haaretz, Israel will not immediately stage a major military action in Gaza.

Even so, today's strike, which was hailed by a Hamas spokesman, increases the chances that Israel will step up its military operations in Gaza once tensions with Syria die down again.

There are growing calls from Israeli leaders, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, for more aggressive steps to stop the rocket fire from Gaza.

A new Gaza operation could be difficult. Israeli intelligence believes that Hamas has successfully smuggled in more than 40 tons of explosives in the three months since it took control of Gaza. That is more than Israel believes Hamas smuggled into Gaza for all of 2006.

It is also not entirely clear what the exit strategy would be and how Israel would define success. Israel could go so far as to set up a buffer zone in the northern Gaza Strip in the open fields used to launch the rockets. That would push militants farther into Gaza and probably turn the soldiers holding onto the buffer zone into new targets.

Good news for Abbas

Three months after Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip, a new poll by respected Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki has some good news for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

The survey shows a surge in popular support for Abbas and his fractured Fatah party as backing for Hamas begins to wane.

Nearly two-thirds of the respondents said they are against the Hamas takeover of Gaza. More Palestinians support the caretaker government led by Salaam Fayyad than the Hamas government in Gaza led by Ismail Haniyeh.

More than 60 percent support new elections and nearly 60 percent back the Palestinian president's decision to change election laws, a move of questionable legality that could hurt Hamas if the movement decides to take part.

Most importantly, support for Fatah has grown from 43 percent in June to 48 percent now. Support for Hamas fell from 33 percent to 31 percent.

While Abbas has said he probably won't run for president again, the survey showed support for him is growing in a hypothetical re-election campaign. In June, the poll showed Abbas leading Haniyeh 49 percent to 42 percent. Now, Abbas gains 59 percent of the vote while Haniyeh garners only 36 percent.

The survey shows that the efforts by Israel, the United States and much of the international community to help Abbas are reaping some rewards.

Hamas is very sensitive to public opinion, and if they sense that they are losing popular support, they might be more inclined to seek compromise and reconciliation with Abbas.

But all this is coming at the same time that tensions between Fatah and Hamas are growing. Abbas has been methodically working to diminish Hamas support in Gaza by moving to shut down Hamas charities, arresting Hamas leaders and ensuring that Gaza remains isolated.

Hamas is doing all it can to demonstrate its power by cracking down on Fatah demonstrations in Gaza, arresting Fatah leaders and criticizing Abbas for his actions.

Haniyeh is scheduled to deliver a pre-Ramadan speech to the Palestinian people on Wednesday night. It could be a good barometer of the Hamas stance in the coming months.

Taste the revolution

For nearly 15 years, Nadim Khoury and his family have poured their money and souls into creating a unique product: The Middle East's only Palestinian micro-brewery.

From its perch in the hilltop West Bank Christian village, the small Taybeh Brewing Company produces thousands of bottles of beer each year that are sold here, in Israel and selected spots around the globe.

The company slogan: Drink Palestinian: Taste the revolution.

This weekend, Khoury and Taybeh celebrated their company's endurance at the annual Taybeh Oktoberfest Beer festival (held in early September to avoid overlap with Ramadan, the holy month when Muslims, along with fasting from dawn to dusk, refrain from drinking alcohol).

Like many Palestinian businesses, Taybeh has struggled through the years. Khoury spent 20 years in Boston running liquor stores with his brother before returning to the West Bank after the 1993 Oslo Accords.

In those early years, the company took off as the Palestinian Authority took hold and hopes for a Palestinian state grew.

Khoury exported to Israel and Germany. Palestinians embraced the idea of having their own beer. And thousands of bottled clinked through the process each day.

Then came the second Palestinian uprising in 2000 - and the economy tanked. Taybeh was trapped between competing political ideologies. What you drank became, and still in large part remains, a political decision.

In the Gaza Strip, Islamist militants torched hotels that sold alcohol and forced liquor stores to close, depriving Taybeh of one of its markets.

In Israel, bars and stores looking to take a political stand stopped selling the Palestinian beer.

In an attempt to expand his business and cater to the region's dominant Muslim clientele, Khoury has been working for more than a year on a new non-alcoholic beer. It is slated to be sold with a green label, the same color that adorns the Hamas flag, leading many to dub the new line "Hamas beer."

The annual beer festival draws hundreds of people to the quiet hilltop village filled with churches and olive groves.

One major draw every year is DAM, known as the first Palestinian hip-hop group.

Based in the working-class Israeli city of Lod, DAM (aka Da Arabian MCs) has been one of the most powerful young political Palestinian voices for years.

They are probably best known for their song "Min Irhabe?" ("Who's the terrorist?")

The song's chorus says it all:

Who is the terrorist?

I am the terrorist?

How  am I the terrorist when you've taken my land?

Who's the terrorist?

You're the terrorist.

You've taken everything I own while I'm living on my homeland.

The song is a defiant defense of Palestinian resistance, and DAM's message during the second intifada helped create a deep rift between DAM founder Tamer Nafer and one-time Israeli allies who became disenchanted with DAM's message and began writing nationalistic and pro-Zionist rap songs.

You can watch the DAM video here:

DAM has struggled itself to gain legitimacy and recently released a new CD.

The young history of Palestinian hip-hop is being documented by a young Detroit-based film maker named Jackie Salloum who has been working to finish "Slingshot hip-hop" a documentary about DAM and other Palestinian rap groups.

Check out the five minute trailer at her web site for a longer look at the film and Palestinian rap.

The makings of a new peace deal?

In his day, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon used to rely on Ehud Olmert to be his canary in a coal mine. Olmert was dispatched to test the winds to see if Sharon's ideas for change would live or die.

Olmert was the first one to float the idea of shutting down Israel's settlements in the Gaza Strip.

Now that he is prime minister, Olmert may be relying on Vice Premier Haim Ramon to do the same thing.

With Olmert's apparent blessing, Ramon has been working behind-the-scenes with the Palestinians on the framework for a deal the Israelis hope can be presented at the Bush administration regional meeting later this fall.

Today, Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper presented the working outlines of the proposal. The story, in full, is below. But here's the basic idea:

Israel would use the separation barrier as the de facto border of its country, a move that would allow it to formally annex the largest Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Ramon estimates this would allow Israel to take between three and eight percent of the West Bank land, though other estimates suggest Israel could take up to 11 or 13 percent of the West Bank land.

In return, Israel would modify the route slightly and offer Palestinians a one-for-one exchange of land. For every West Bank acre Israel takes, it would offer an acre of land in Israel. Israel would give up land to establish a link between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

On Jerusalem, Israel would agree to give up its claims East Jerusalem neighborhoods dominated by Palestinians. These areas could in theory then become the official capital of a new Palestinian state.

In the Old City, each religion would have control over their own religious sites and no national flags would be flown there.

On Palestinian refugees, Israel would allow at most a symbolic return of Palestinians who fled their homes in what is now Israel.

"I am trying to persuade the other side to lower their expectations, not increase them," Ramon told Haaretz newspaper.

The idea faces a lot of challenges. The right of Palestinians to return to their homes inside what is now Israel is just one major hurdle. The plan also completely ignores Hamas and its control of Gaza.

There are some who view the Ramon plan as little more than a public relations ploy to prop up Olmert and his pragmatic Kadima party.

"There is no possibility at this time of making peace with the Palestinians," said Kadima lawmaker Otniel Schneller, a conservative West Bank settler who was tasked by Sharon and Olmert with drafting a now dormant unilateral plan to shut down settlements in the West Bank. "First we have to make peace among ourselves."

Schneller has his own revised plan,which is mostly a revamp of the Bush administration road map.

It envisions a phased approach to establishing a Palestinian state, but gives Israelis the right to vote against any element of the plan as it moves forward.

Schneller told Ma'ariv newspaper that Israel must hold onto at least 13 percent of the West Bank land.

"Without this, there will be civil war," he said.

That is probably overstating things more than a little bit.

Still, it is clear that there are still those in Israel who view the Bush regional summit as a chance to push things forward or, at least, offer the appearance of momentum, even if it goes nowhere.

Yedioth Ahronoth (p. B2) by Nahum Barnea and Shimon Shiffer

Haim Ramon is the dove that Ehud Olmert sends to the Palestinians with an olive branch in his mouth. Ramon has a plan, whose details we will bring below. He is convinced that he is acting with permission and authorization. The Prime Minister’s Bureau says he has permission, but not authorization. That everything he proposes is at his own initiative. If it works, somehow, for Israel and the Palestinians, the Ramon plan, retroactively, will become the Olmert plan. If it doesn’t work, it will be Ramon’s alone. This technique is known in diplomatic language as deniability.

Ramon is not just proposing, he is proposing a lot. He has held a number of talks on the details of his plan with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who responded enthusiastically, if not to the details, then to Ramon’s embrace, and with other high-ranking people in the West Bank. Ramon also presented his plan to Director of Egyptian Intelligence General Omar Suleiman in a meeting in Cairo in August.

Ramon proposes formulating a document of principles, two pages long, which for the first time in the history of the conflict, would set an agreed-on and binding basis for the essence of a comprehensive arrangement. He also talks to the Palestinians about what will happen on the ground, what Israel will do and what they will do after the signing ceremony in Washington.

The document of principles would go deep into the four core issues of the conflict: the borders of the Palestinian state, security, Jerusalem, refugees. Ramon is convinced that his plan provides an answer both to Olmert’s political needs and to Abu Mazen’s political needs, each and their electorate.

Ramon tells the Palestinians that the moment Israel built the separation fence, it determined its border in the West Bank. The border would be the fence, with certain changes. This means that 3% to 8% of the West Bank would be annexed to Israel, including the Jewish neighborhoods and settlements built in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

This means, says Ramon, that Ariel and Maale Adumim would be annexed to the State of Israel, but Karnei Shomron and its satellites, Beit El, Ofra, the Haredi town of Tel Tziyon and all the settlements on the mountain ridge would be evacuated and given to the Palestinians.

The Palestinians would be compensated for the territories they lost with identical territory inside the Green Line. Ramon talks to the Palestinians about a land corridor between Gaza and Hebron. The width of the corridor would be decided based on the size of the area that Israel would receive for the settlement blocs. The Israelis would pass either under or over the corridor. In the past, Tzippi Livni proposed giving the Palestinians a tunnel connecting Gaza to Hebron, and Shimon Peres proposed linking the two areas by train. Israeli public opinion will find it harder to accept a corridor of the kind that Ramon proposes.

The document meant to be signed in November would not go into detail. It would only state that the borders are to be determined based on the 1967 lines and on land swaps. “You will be able to say that you received 100% of the territory,” Ramon tells the Palestinians. “We will be able to tell our public that we included the settlement blocs, as Bush promised in his letter of April 14, 2004.”

Security: in the document of principles, both sides would promise, immediately after signing, to carry out the first stage of the road map. The Palestinians are supposed to disarm all the organizations and instate their authority over their territory, and Israel is supposed to withdraw the IDF forces from the Palestinian cities, to accept the security arrangements formulated by American Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton and to evacuate all the outposts.

Ostensibly, this is less complicated than in the past. There is no Fayyad government in Gaza. In the West Bank, it fights Hamas openly. The matter of security is no less important to it than it is to Israel, and it is offering to cooperate extensively with Israel on this matter. It is demanding that Israel dismantle the roadblocks and allow freedom of movement, but is willing to accept Israeli military activity throughout the West Bank as necessary. Fayyad knows that his government depends on the points of the IDF’s soldiers’ bayonets. If the IDF withdraws, Hamas will take its place.

Jerusalem: Ramon, in his talks, adopts the principle that Clinton outlined in January 2001: East Jerusalem would be divided between the two states. What is populated by Jews would remain under Jewish sovereignty; the parts populated by Arabs would come under Palestine’s sovereignty. In the holy basin, i.e., the Old City and its environs, each religion would be responsible for its holy places. No national flags would be flown, neither of Israel nor of Palestine.

In his talks with the Palestinians, Ramon says that immediately after signing the document of principles, Israel would transfer to the Palestinians three outlying neighborhoods in East Jerusalem: Walaje, a village south of Jerusalem that borders on the Har Gilo settlement; Sawahra, a neighborhood in southeastern Jerusalem that borders on the Judean Desert; Shuafat, near the Atarot airfield. “By transferring the neighborhoods, Israel would be making a gesture of good will, and that is just the beginning,” Ramon tells the Palestinians. To the Israelis, Ramon says that transferring the neighborhoods should only gladden them: there will be less clients for the National Insurance Institute, less of a demographic headache.

Refugees: This is the most complicated subject. Ramon tells his interlocutors on the other side. The document of principles will have to say that the right of return will be realized in the Palestinian state. Israel will not bring refugees inside its borders unless this is part of a quota and is defined as a humanitarian gesture. Ramon talks about 1,000 families, but the number could change during negotiations.

An international foundation would be established to pay for rehabilitating the refugees. Israel would be a partner in it.

Rats and lions

Hamas television, which first brought the world the militant Mickey Mouse, is now turning to Walt Disney for more inspiration.

A new cartoon being aired on the Hamas-run Al Aqsa television depicts Hamas as a dignified Lion King who restores order after corrupt rats led by the hated Mohammed Dahlan use US weapons and Israeli support to attack mosques, destroy families and transform Gaza into a corrupt fiefdom.

It is directed at Fatah leaders in the West Bank and appears to warn them that what happened in Gaza could happen in the West Bank.

The cartoon is another example of the bad blood that runs between Fatah and Hamas that makes reconciliation between the two sides difficult, if not impossible, in the current circumstances.

Check it out here:

 

Is this how the next war starts?

After months of chest beating by both Syria and Israel, today there was substantive trouble between the two countries - the kind that can lead to war.

The Syrian government said today that Israeli jets entered Syrian air space overnight and were chased out by the Syrian air force.

Syria said it is "seriously considering" its response, though it is unlikely that Syria will respond with an attack on Israel.

The Israeli military is refusing to comment.

Reports from Syria indicate that the Israeli planes entered Syria from Turkey, which conducts military exercises with Israel. After being chased by Syrian jets, Syrian officials said, the Israeli planes dropped some ammo in the open desert and returned to Turkey.

Last summer, Israeli military jets buzzed the summer palace of President Bashar Assad to send a clear warning to the Syrian leader about his support for Hezbollah and Hamas. At that time, though, Israel confirmed that its jets had entered Syrian air space.

Despite the occasional beating of the war drums by some Israeli and Syrian officials, both countries have been trying to avoid a showdown. That hasn't kept the two countries from building up their operations in the disputed Golan Heights, which Syria wants back in return for peace with Israel.

The conflicting messages have kept both countries on alert.

This is just the type of incident that can send things spinning out if control of the two countries aren't careful.

As everyone here remembers, the Six Day War in 1967 was preceded by serious military battles between Syria and Israel. In April, 1967, Syrian forces opened fire on an Israeli tractor operating in the Golan Heights. That led to a rapid military escalation.

A month later, the Soviet Union fueled tensions by telling Egypt that Israel was massing troops on the Syrian border.

A month later, Israel launched its air attack on the Egyptian air force and the Six Day War was underway.

Times have obviously changed, and the appetite for war is much smaller these days. One should expect both governments to react with restraint. But there is no guarantee wiser minds will prevail. Which is why the next few hours and days will be critical.

Israel's "reckless indifference"

I have just returned from a long, off-line vacation, so I need to catch up on what's been happening while I've been out-of-touch.

In the meantime, Human Rights Watch today released a detailed examination of Israel's conduct during last summer's 34-day war with Hezbollah.

And the conclusions are stark:

"In critical respects, Israel conducted the war with reckless indifference to the fate of Lebanese civilians and violated the laws of war," the report states in its executive summary.

Release of this critical study comes one week after Human Rights Watch issued a separate report on Hezbollah's conduct during the war.

In that report, Human Rights Watch determined that there was "strong evidence" that "some Hezbollah commanders and members were responsible for war crimes" for indiscriminately launching rockets at Israeli civilians during the war.

Civilian deaths, especially on the Lebanese side, were one of the biggest issues during last summer's war. Israel repeatedly expressed regret about the large number of innocent Lebanese civilians killed. But Israeli leaders said they were forced to respond when Hezbollah fighters fired rockets at Israel from towns and villages in southern Lebanon.

But the Human Rights Watch investigation found little evidence to support Israel's claims that Hezbollah was routinely using the civilian population as a human shield.

"Out of the 499 Lebanese civilian casualties of whom Human Rights Watch was able to confirm the age and gender, 302 were women or children," the authors write. "This repeated failure to distinguish between civilians and combatants cannot be explained as mere mismanagement of the war or a collection of mistakes. Our case studies show that Israeli policy was primarily responsible for this deadly failure."

During the war, more than 1,100 Lebanese were killed by Israeli air strikes. The "vast majority," Human Rights Watch found, were civilians.

By contrast, 43 Israeli civilians and 12 Israeli soldiers were killed by the more than 4,000 Hezbollah rocket strikes on northern Israel.

Israel has yet to offer a detailed response to the 250-page report other than to repeat the government's longstanding contention that Hezbollah used civilians as human shields.

Human Rights Watch documents numerous instances of Israel's military killing civilians in places where there was no evidence of Hezbollah military action.

One thing the report highlights is the result of Israel's general military strategy, which is to respond with overwhelming force when it feels Israel is being tested.

In this case, the response backfired and the war ended with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah being hailed as a new Middle East hero for weathering Israel's military attacks and exposing fundamental weaknesses in the most feared military in the region.

The large number of innocent deaths in Israeli strikes also undercut Israel's image during the war. At the start, Israel won widespread backing for responding to the July 12, 2006 Hezbollah attack on an Israeli border patrol that ended with the capture of two Israeli soldiers.

Much of the world stood by Israel at the start. But support began to erode as the number of innocent deaths rose in Lebanon.

In theory, the report might give Israel a chance to examine its strategy and examine whether or not it should do more to minimize civilian deaths when it goes to war.

In reality, the report will probably end up being cast aside by policy makers as the work of a do-good group with an anti-Israeli agenda. Pro-Israeli groups are likely to pick apart the study in search of bias and mistakes.

And that's too bad. The intensive work Human Rights Watch has done in these two reports should not be dismissed so quickly.