Middle East Winds of War

Spring in Washington brings cherry blossoms. Spring in the Middle East brings rumors of war.

Last week, The Jerusalem Post carried an ominous front page story with the headline: "IDF on high alert as Syria boosts troops near the border. Barak cancels trip to Germany due to tensions in the north."

Aside from the fact that the story was based on a poorly-sourced report in a London-based Arabic newspaper, and that the rumored troop build-up was taking place along Syria's border with Lebanon, not Israel, the story was quickly knocked down - by Israel's own military leaders.

Still, there are plenty of reasons to worry that Israel could celebrate its 60th anniversary this year with another deadly clash with one of its Middle East rivals.

The concern hit home for me last week when I called a diplomat in the region for a reality check on the Syrian story.

The Jerusalem Post stoked similar fears last summer that proved to be totally unfounded.

This time around, there seems to be much more concern.

"There's a lot of shadow boxing and anxiety," the diplomat told me. "The mood music is very unsettling to everybody."

The problem this summer is that there is more than one problem.

Start with Hezbollah, which is expected to strike back at Israel in retaliation for the Feb. 12 assassination of Imad Mughnieyh, one of its militant masterminds.

While no one knows for sure if Israel was behind Mughnieyh's death in Damascus, Hezbollah says it is certain Israeli agents were responsible.

Israel has been bracing itself for a Hezbollah strike ever since.

In recent weeks, sources say, Israel has sent word through diplomatic channels to Syria with a blunt warning: If Hezbollah strikes us, we will respond by attacking you.

Publicly, Israel has sent out contradictory messages to Syria. Sometimes it seeks to assure Syria that it wants no war. Other times it warns that it will respond forcefully if there is an attack.

Syria has its own beef with Israel following an air strike last September that demolished a mysterious Syrian facility.

Israel has never publicly taken responsibility for the strike, though it is widely accepted that Israel hit Syria - and there are reports that Israel and the US are preparing to release details of the strike in forthcoming Congressional hearings.

Along with the worries to the north, there are concerns to the south.

Israel's tenuous, informal cease-fire with Hamas was shattered today when Gaza militants staged a deadly cross-border raid on the main crossing with Israel used to transfer critical fuel into the Gaza Strip.

The attack was an ominous sign that Egyptian attempts to broker a stable cease fire have failed.

Israel responded to the attack by sending tanks into Gaza and warning Hamas leaders controlling the narrow Mediterranean strip that they would be held accountable.

Taken together, the volatile mixture has created serious concerns for diplomats in the Middle East.

While there is debate within the diplomatic community about how serious the threats are, there is more concern this summer than last.

"The tinder is dry," said one diplomatic official I spoke to last week, "and if there is a spark, it could start a conflagration."