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May 14, 2008

Bush/Olmert: "A meeting of lame ducks"

Air Force One had yet to touch down at Ben Gurion Airport and the Israeli press was already abuzz with what was likely to happen here once President Bush is gone.

And, if true, the picture isn't pretty.

Israelis are expected to be on their best behavior while the president is here. People will downplay the deepening political corruption investigation of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert by saying that justice should take its course.

Busholmert But Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper carried an op-ed, titled "A meeting of lame ducks," that captured the mood.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was particularly candid on the eve of the trip when she said that peace "might be improbable, but it is not impossible."

After keeping mum about talks for months, Olmert is now saying that Israel has made "significant progress" in its talks with Palestinian negotiators, who almost immediately challenged the Israeli PM's view of discussions.

"I don't know what kind of progress he is talking about," said PA negotiator Saeb Erekat.

Rice's final strategic move has been to put more pressure on Israelis and the Palestinians to change the so-called facts on the ground as a way to create a better climate for the peace talks.

One major issue is expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which the US opposes and Israel refuses to completely halt.

Hours before Bush arrived, Israel's Shas party, a crucial coalition partner, said that Olmert would approve hundreds of new homes in the West Bank soon after Bush heads home.

The boast was denied by Israel's Housing Ministry, but Olmert has already unapologetically approved several contentious West Bank projects  that have drawn protests from the US and Palestinian negotiators.

This time around, according to Israel's Maariv newspaper, Bush has given Olmert the OK for the construction.

There are also broad expectations that Israel will soon take more sweeping actions to stop the incessant rocket attacks coming from Gaza.

Two Israelis have been killed by aerial attacks from Gaza in the last six days and the Israeli military is claiming that the mortar that killed one of the civilians was made in Iran.

Hours before Bush arrived, the Israeli military killed two Palestinian civilians and two Hamas militants in an early morning air strike.

Once Bush leaves, Israeli leaders are expected to step up their operations in Gaza.

Maariv reported this morning that a "dramatic change" had taken place in the Israeli military's view of a large-scale operation in Gaza.

The military leadership once opposed a ground operation as a potential tar pit. Now, according to Maariv, they see it as inevitable.

Any decision would have to be approved by Olmert and his security cabinet, which is still waiting to see if Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman can broker a cease-fire with Hamas.

Israel told Suleiman earlier this week that they would not agree to a cease-fire unless the deal includes some movement on freeing Gilad Shalit, the young Israeli soldier captured by Hamas-led militants from Gaza in 2006.

Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar rejected that demand yesterday, but that may not be the end of the negotiations.

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dion

Checkpoint Jerusalem is written by Dion Nissenbaum, who covers the Middle East as Jerusalem bureau chief for McClatchy Newspapers.

Feel free to send a story suggestion. Read his stories at news.mcclatchy.com.

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