Other interesting bits from the NIC 2025 study

The new National Intelligence Council's report on what the world may look like in 2025 is so dense that a lot of really interesting findings couldn't be included in the story written when the study was unveiled on Nov 20. So Nukes & Spooks thought we'd throw some out there - in no particular order - for popular consideration:

One factor that could mitigate the socio-economic impact of aging workforces in many countries over the next two decades is the economic empowerment of women. The report finds that recent improvements in health care, education and employment opportunities for women and girls have contributed as much to increased economic productivity in recent years as technological improvements. "Over the next 20 years, the increased entry of women in the workplace may continue to mitigate the economic impacts of global aging," the report said.

It added that "nowhere is the role of women potentially more important for geopolitical change than in the Muslim world." The report noted that Muslim women do far better assimilating in Europe than Muslim men and that they may in the future "help show the way to greater social assimilation and reduce the likelihood of religious extremism."

Experts expect HIV/AIDS to remain a global pandemic through 2025, with Sub-Saharan Africa continuing to be the "epicenter of infection," the report said. Even if an effective vaccine or a "self-administered microbicide" are developed by then, it is unlikely that either will be "widely disseminated," the report continued.

If prevention efforts and the effectiveness of life-extending anti-retroviral therapies remain at current levels, the world's HIV-positive population is forecast to climb from the estimated 33 million today to an estimated 50 million by 2025. Nearly half of those cases will be in Sub-Saharan Africa. If an all-out prevention campaign were in place by 2015, the world's HIV-positive cases would peak and then fall to about 25 million by 2025.

Even with a massive effort to develop clean fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, all current technologies "are inadequate for replacing traditional energy architectures on the scale needed," according to the report. "New energy technologies will probably not be commercially viable and widespread by 2025," it continued.

"Simply meeting baseline energy demand over the next two decades is estimated to require more than $3 trillion of investment in traditional hydrocarbons by companies built up over more than a century and with market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We expect any new form of energy to demand similarly massive investment," the report said.

The geopolitical consequences of reducing global use of oil and gas will be "immense," according to a section of the report called "Winners and Loser in a Post-Petroleum World." The biggest loser: Saudi Arabia. It will suffer "the biggest shock," and its leaders could face serious challenges from religious conservatives as they try to implement major economic reforms to diversify the economy, including full participation by women in the economy.

Another major loser would be Iran, whose populist economic policies would be undermined by reductions in oil and gas prices. Such a development could fuel demands for economic reform, including opening up the economy to Western investment and stronger ties with Western countries including the United States. "Iranian leaders might be more willing to trade their nuclear policies for aid and trade," the report said.

Experts currently consider 21 countries, whose combined populations total 600 million people, to have shortages of arrable land or fresh water. That number is forecast to rise to 36 countries, whose populations will total about 1.4 billion people, by 2025. "Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching unprecedented proportions in many areas of the world and is likely to grow worse owing to rapid urbanization and population growth," the report said.

Comments

[valdis]

Interesting post. So, clean water, clean energy and women's rights should form a significant national and economic security focus?

Have we run out of bombs? When did the NIC let all the lefties in?

This is literally what we tree-hugging global-conservationist/human rights-types have been saying for years.

I suggest that a late start is better than no start at all!

[Philip Henika]

Women have also been the recipients and caretakers of "microcredit" the idea of which won Dr. Yunus Mohammad the Nobel Peace Prize. Such innovative actions often grate against culturally- accepted norms. On the other hand, many human civilizations have collapsed due to intransigence; for the inability to look over one's shoulder to see how other cultures (often ignored as "primitive") solve such problems as e.g. food sustainability. I think the trend is toward multifactorial peace processes
customized for each region with primary considerations for health and prosperity. Democracy promotion will have to take a back to more fundamental concerns as the global recession defines more needs than wants.