July 02, 2009

Venezuela: brain drain

Mac Margolis has written a terrific analysis of the long-term problems that Venezuela is facing because of Hugo Chavez's policies. Mac's report suggests that Venezuela is a slow-moving train wreck -- one that can be avoided only as long as oil prices remain high.

Under Chavez, Venezuela has become ever-more dependent on PDVSA's income.

July 01, 2009

Bolivia and the U.S.

The Democracy Center does good work in Bolivia. I keep up with founder Jim Shultz's blog. I thought he had interesting comments about the continued ragged relations between Bolivia and the United States.

It's worth a read. At least the United States and Venezuela have now restored their ambassadors.

Clearly, the Obama administration is displeased with Bolivia. The administration extended the duty-free import benefits for Ecuador but not Bolivia.

June 29, 2009

Uruguay: presidential lineup set

With all the news out of Honduras and Argentina in recent days, I thought it would be good to bring your attention to the news that Uruguay has settled on its presidential candidates for the October election.

Uruguay is a small country that doesn't make news often. The biggest question for an international audience is whether Mujica is really a Chavez ally. Lugo in Paraguay faced that question.

Ecuador: Correa's policies

President Correa has been charting a path in common with Hugo Chavez in many ways. He got a new constitution and public approval to seek a re-election campaign that he won. Ecuador has now joined the ALBA economic and political bloc formed by Chavez.

Correa has not expropriated private companies as Chavez has. The United States has enough hope with Correa that Obama recently called to congratulate him on his re-election victory.

The leftist-oriented Center for Economic and Policy Research has published an analysis of Correa's economic and social policies. It's worth reading.

June 26, 2009

Latest coca crop numbers

The annual U.N. report on coca production seemed to get less attention this year. I was most interested to see that the drug traffickers are shifting from Colombia to Peru and Bolivia and that Colombians who lost their money in the pyramid scheme are returning to coca planting.

A report like this could add further clamor to the argument that the drug war is a massive failure.

The Economist offers this excellent analysis.

June 25, 2009

Venezuela and the US

The United States and Venezuela have had a roller coaster relationship since Hugo Chavez came to power a decade ago. Chavez misses no opportunity to blame Washington for the coup that toppled him for two days in 2002. He also frequently took shots at President Bush.

Chavez expelled the US ambassador last year, and the US of course followed suit. Now it appears that diplomatic relations will get back on track. It's noteworthy that Chavez doesn't seem to have figured out a strategy yet for Barack Obama, who is popular in Venezuela.

It's unlikely, however, that the two countries will re-establish the warm ties they had before Chavez took office. Chavez's political and strategic interests seem to be fundamentally in conflict with those of the United States.

June 23, 2009

Iran and Bolivia

Given the events in Iran, it seems like a good time to get the take of Jim Shultz, an American who lives in Cochabamba. Jim offers interesting comments on Iran and on its relationship with Evo Morales and Bolivia.

Jim always has something interesting to say.

June 22, 2009

Venezuela: Mafioso arrested

People who have nothing good to say about Hugo Chavez should take note of this story. It can only be good news for law-abiding citizens everywhere that this man has been captured.

But then again, some folks may wonder how long he operated in Venezuela and ask why he wasn't captured earlier.

June 18, 2009

Ecuador: What does Correa want?

I must admit that President Correa puzzles me. When I was in Ecuador a year ago, I asked several analysts how he differed from Hugo Chavez.

They said he enjoyed good relations with the US and didn't toe the Chavez line. But since then, he has kicked US diplomats out of the country and joined the Chavez-led ALBA trading bloc.

This Reuters story adds to the confusion. It marks clear differences between Correa and Chavez over nationalizing companies. But this UPI story makes it seem as if Correa could nationalize foreign companies.

Obama's advisers think enough of Correa that they had the US president call Correa recently.

So where exactly does Correa stand?

Colombia: risky planes

I've read a fair amount about the three Americans held hostage by the FARC and the dramatic operation that rescued them a year ago.

Mark Bowden takes a unique look at the situation here.

Bowden, you may remember, wrote "Killing Pablo." He does great work.