Bolivia nears the edge again

With Christmas and Carnaval behind them, Bolivians have picked up where they left off in mid-December, which means fighting over how to reform their deeply divided country. The opposition-led province of Santa Cruz, this 9.1 million-person country’s richest and second most populous, has scheduled a May 4 vote on a proposal that would unilaterally declare the province “autonomous,” which basically means enjoying the status of a U.S. state with powers to form state police and control finances. The eastern Bolivian province of Beni plans to hold a similar vote June 1.

That directly challenges President Evo Morales, who in December received a new constitution approved under controversial circumstances by his mostly indigenous followers. That document would give the country’s indigenous majority more power and resources, allow Morales to be re-elected once and give the government more control over natural resources, among other measures.

Morales has called the autonomy referendums illegal, and his activist followers have surrounded the country’s opposition-led Senate and promised to stay there until it schedules a vote on the new constitution, preferably before Santa Cruz’s referendum. Another two provinces, Tarjia and Pando, have yet to schedule their own referendums, and Bolivians must also approve a constitutional clause that would limit the size of private land holdings. Morales has also proposed holding a referendum on his mandate and that of all of nine of the country’s governors.

What this means is Bolivians will have a busy 2008 trying to settle their differences at the voting booth rather than in the street, which is a political tradition in this impoverished country. Street protests have ousted two presidents since 2003, and dozens of protesters have died in the political mayhem. This year will present a real test for Bolivia’s fragile democracy, one that the system was probably never designed to handle. At least for now, Bolivians are trying to solve their problems through ballots and not bullets.